0 pp
Will the Fed leave interest rates unchanged at its July 2026 meeting?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$64.48mResolution: 29 July 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$42.43mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$33.78mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$33.54mResolution: 4 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.50mResolution: 1 March 2027 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 college football Heisman Trophy?
Happens
41%
price $0.41
Does not happen
59%
price $0.59
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$25.90mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$22.14mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$14.77mResolution: 4 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.03mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.84mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.54mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.76mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum be priced above $3,000 at the end of 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.90mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.77mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.65mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.30mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 American League MVP award?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.29mResolution: 8 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.19mResolution: 23 February 2027 - 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.99mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.43mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.34mResolution: 6 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.26mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.05mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
77%
price $0.77
Does not happen
23%
price $0.23
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.79mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.14mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.96mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.65mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
32%
price $0.32
Does not happen
68%
price $0.68
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.64mResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.47mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.30mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be Google's #1 most-searched person globally in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US Senate hold a recorded vote on the CLARITY Act before 8 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.10mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 1 January 2027