Will Ethereum's price dip to $1,800 or below in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$593.6kActual outcome: Yes
Events
- 0 pp
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 to the general public by September 30, 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$580.6kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026?
Happens
55%
price $0.55
Does not happen
45%
price $0.45
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$558.9kActual outcome: No Will Israel withdraw its ground forces from beyond the Litani River in Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$534.3kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$526.7kActual outcome: No Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 7 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$524.0kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$517.0kActual outcome: No Will Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 October 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$501.9kActual outcome: NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 December 2026?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$501.9kActual outcome: NoWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$488.5kActual outcome: YesWill WTI crude oil fall to $65 a barrel at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$484.6kActual outcome: NoWill WTI Crude Oil Hit $100 a Barrel in October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$478.7kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$477.2kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Vinicius Junior remain at Real Madrid through the 2026 summer transfer window?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$474.3kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US announce it is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear ceasefire negotiations by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$472.6kActual outcome: No Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $150 a Barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$471.2kActual outcome: NoWill OpenAI announce a solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by 31 December 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$423.4kActual outcome: NoWill the GTA VI Launch Trailer get 40 to 60 million YouTube views in its first week?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$409.7kActual outcome: NoWill WTI crude oil hit $140 per barrel in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$407.0kActual outcome: NoWill Anthropic Release a Fable Model (Version 5.2 or Higher) by 31 October 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$399.0kActual outcome: NoWill Hanwha Life Esports win the League of Legends World Championship 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$381.5kActual outcome: NoWill Ethereum (ETH) reach $2,000 at any point in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$341.0kActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$336.0kActual outcome: No Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$332.3kActual outcome: NoWill Rodri Join Barcelona Before September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$330.3kActual outcome: NoWill Anthropic complete an IPO by 15 December 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$314.6kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railroad station by 31 July 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$290.5kActual outcome: No Will the United States announce a ban on diesel exports by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$286.0kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$279.5kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$276.9kActual outcome: No Will Alibaba have the top-ranked Chinese AI model on the Chimera Arena leaderboard at the end of August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$266.1kActual outcome: NoWill Houthi Forces Enter Aden, Yemen by the End of 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$235.5kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$232.3kActual outcome: No Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election by less than 5 percentage points?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$229.0kActual outcome: NoWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$215.9kActual outcome: YesWill Russia announce a new forced military mobilization by the end of 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$175.1kActual outcome: No