0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 2 January 2027 Will the Fed change interest rates after its December 2026 meeting?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 9 December 2026Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$995.9kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released before 1 January 2027?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$971.2kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 30 November 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$970.1kResolution: 1 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Zohran Mamdani be named Time's Person of the Year for 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$917.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election?
Happens
70%
price $0.70
Does not happen
30%
price $0.30
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$896.3kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election?
Happens
74%
price $0.74
Does not happen
26%
price $0.26
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$892.7kResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the GTA 6 launch be postponed again?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$880.0kResolution: 19 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$863.5kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$857.6kResolution: 1 November 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 24 October 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$841.2kResolution: 25 October 2026Will OpenAI complete its IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$828.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$810.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be president of Cuba by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$758.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$750.8kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) reach $100 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
37%
price $0.37
Does not happen
63%
price $0.63
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$729.6kActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top-grossing film of 2026 at the US box office?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$717.9kResolution: 8 January 2027 Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$716.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the LMArena leaderboard at the end of October 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$710.8kResolution: 31 October 2026Will Likud win the most seats in Israel's 2026 election?
Happens
31%
price $0.31
Does not happen
69%
price $0.69
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$710.7kResolution: 28 October 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 December 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$706.7kResolution: 31 December 2026Will the 2026 US midterm elections take place as scheduled on 3 November 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$703.5kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Kylian Mbappé finish higher than Lamine Yamal in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$697.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic complete an IPO before 2027?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$677.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding to Georgina Rodríguez?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$677.3kActual outcome: NoWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$676.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Pete Hegseth leave the role of US Secretary of Defense by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$676.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$675.6kResolution: 13 November 2026Will Republicans win the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$667.0kResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the 2026 Super Bowl champion visit the White House before the end of 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$665.2kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 November 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$643.4kResolution: 30 November 2026Will Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline resume operations by 31 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$643.2kActual outcome: NoWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$642.6kResolution: 1 November 2026Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$634.8kResolution: 1 January 2027