0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.50mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
Will the US government confirm that aliens exist by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.46mResolution: 1 November 2026Will there be a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.43mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.43mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Kylian Mbappé finish higher than Lamine Yamal in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.39mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US formally withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.35mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Iran Lose Control of Kharg Island by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.34mResolution: 1 November 2026Will the US and Iran sign a final nuclear deal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.34mResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be Google's #1 most-searched person globally in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.32mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.27mResolution: 1 November 2026Will the WHO declare a new pandemic in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.27mResolution: 1 January 2027Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.21mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US Conduct a Military Strike on Colombian Territory by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.15mResolution: 4 November 2026Will Xi Jinping visit the United States before 2027?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.13mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.13mResolution: 4 November 2026Will Kanye West perform live in Russia by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.10mResolution: 1 November 2026Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 30 November 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 1 December 2026- 0 pp
Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 2 January 2027 Will Arnold Allen be officially announced as Alexander Volkanovski's next UFC opponent?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 January 2027Will BP be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the 2026 US midterm elections take place as scheduled on 3 November 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the LMArena leaderboard at the end of October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.05mResolution: 31 October 2026Will Bitcoin fall to $77,500 at any point in October 2026?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released before 1 January 2027?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$996.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$978.8kResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Zohran Mamdani be named Time's Person of the Year for 2026?
Happens
30%
price $0.30
Does not happen
70%
price $0.70
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$928.8kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the GTA 6 launch be postponed again?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$897.9kResolution: 19 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$865.7kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Pete Hegseth leave the role of US Secretary of Defense by 31 December 2026?
Happens
33%
price $0.33
Does not happen
67%
price $0.67
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$860.3kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 December 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$838.6kResolution: 31 December 2026Will OpenAI complete its IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$837.5kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$825.7kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$789.4kResolution: 1 November 2026