0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$62.71mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- โ0.2 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.44mResolution: 1 March 2027 - +0.5 pp
Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$24.37mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.74mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.03mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ0.1 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.17mResolution: 4 January 2027 - +0.8 pp
Will Ethereum be priced above $3,000 at the end of 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.72mResolution: 1 January 2027 - +0.5 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$8.72mResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ0.5 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.34mResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.25mResolution: 1 August 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
75%
price $0.75
Does not happen
25%
price $0.25
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.20mResolution: 6 December 2026 - โ1.9 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.77mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 college football Heisman Trophy?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.77mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Republicans control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.31mResolution: 1 February 2027 - 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.18mResolution: 31 October 2026 - +1 pp
Who will win the 2026 American League MVP award?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.18mResolution: 8 December 2026 - +12.2 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.58mResolution: 3 November 2026 - โ1.2 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 1 January 2027 - โ1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
39%
price $0.39
Does not happen
61%
price $0.61
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.58mResolution: 1 January 2027 - +0.1 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.51mResolution: 1 January 2027 - โ0.5 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.46mResolution: 1 January 2027 - +0.1 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.36mResolution: 3 November 2026 - โ1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 1 October 2026 - โ3 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.32mResolution: 3 November 2026 - +3 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
51%
price $0.51
Does not happen
49%
price $0.49
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.24mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 1 January 2027 - โ0.5 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$998.6kResolution: 1 January 2027 - โ1 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
56%
price $0.56
Does not happen
44%
price $0.44
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$941.8kResolution: 1 July 2027 - โ1 pp
Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?
Happens
30%
price $0.30
Does not happen
70%
price $0.70
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$895.2kResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$828.3kResolution: 23 February 2027 - โ0.5 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$781.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ4 pp
Will comprehensive crypto market structure legislation become law in the US before 2027?
Happens
32%
price $0.32
Does not happen
68%
price $0.68
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$767.1kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$641.6kResolution: 1 August 2026 - โ1 pp
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released before 1 January 2027?
Happens
89%
price $0.89
Does not happen
11%
price $0.11
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$625.5kResolution: 1 January 2027