Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$909.2kResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
Will the International Court of Justice win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$905.4kResolution: 10 October 2026Will WTI crude oil hit $90 per barrel at any point in August 2026?
Happens
40%
price $0.40
Does not happen
60%
price $0.60
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$842.6kResolution: 1 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$833.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$828.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$816.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US formally declare war on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$802.2kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Arthur Fils beat Flavio Cobolli at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$802.1kResolution: 29 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Iran invade Kuwait by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$795.1kActual outcome: No Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$792.9kResolution: 10 October 2026- 0 pp
Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$784.9kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$764.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 Which team will win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
Happens
46%
price $0.46
Does not happen
54%
price $0.54
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$764.4kActual outcome: NoWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$738.6kActual outcome: YesWill Xi Jinping visit the United States before 2027?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$734.2kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released before 1 January 2027?
Happens
88%
price $0.88
Does not happen
12%
price $0.12
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$728.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$728.1kResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the GTA 6 launch be postponed again?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$709.5kResolution: 19 November 2026 Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.3kResolution: 31 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.2kResolution: 30 September 2026 Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding to Georgina Rodríguez?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$677.3kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
52%
price $0.52
Does not happen
48%
price $0.48
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$672.0kActual outcome: No Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$658.6kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Kawhi Leonard's next NBA team be the Toronto Raptors?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$639.7kResolution: 21 October 2026 Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$621.9kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$621.5kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top-grossing film of 2026 at the US box office?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$620.1kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the 2026 Super Bowl champion visit the White House before the end of 2026?
Happens
31%
price $0.31
Does not happen
69%
price $0.69
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$605.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$599.3kResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) reach $100 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$593.0kActual outcome: Yes Will Aryna Sabalenka beat Sara Bejlek at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$592.6kResolution: 27 August 2026Did the Toronto Blue Jays beat the New York Yankees on 22 August 2026?
Happens
77%
price $0.77
Does not happen
23%
price $0.23
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$590.3kResolution: 29 August 2026Will 2026 be the hottest year on record globally?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$579.0kResolution: 31 December 2026Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $110 a Barrel in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$573.4kResolution: 1 September 2026Will Friedrich Merz stop being Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$547.4kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the US officially announce a halt to its offensive military operations against Iran by 31 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$530.5kResolution: 31 August 2026