Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 at any point in August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.89mResolution: 1 September 2026
Events
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California governor election?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.84mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.82mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 Premier League title?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 30 May 2027 - 0 pp
Will There Be a Direct Military Clash Between NATO and Russia by 31 August 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.78mResolution: 1 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.73mResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before the end of 2026?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.70mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.70mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.59mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Kamala Harris win the 2026 California Governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.57mResolution: 3 November 2026Will Hamas officially agree to disarm in Gaza by 31 December 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.49mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.42mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Happens
38%
price $0.38
Does not happen
62%
price $0.62
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.37mResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 23 February 2027 - 0 pp
Will Iran impose a full closure of its national airspace by 31 August 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.33mActual outcome: No Will the US formally withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will China and Japan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US and Iran hold another formal diplomatic meeting by 31 August 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.26mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 1 July 2027 Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.16mActual outcome: No Will Arthur Fils beat Frances Tiafoe at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.14mResolution: 30 August 2026Will Coco Gauff beat Jessica Pegula at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.13mResolution: 30 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Netflix release a new episode of Stranger Things by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.11mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Brandon Nakashima beat Frances Tiafoe at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 29 August 2026Will Arnold Allen be officially announced as Alexander Volkanovski's next UFC opponent?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Mercedes win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 6 December 2026 Will BP be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 31 December 2026Did Tommy Paul defeat Alexander Zverev at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.05mResolution: 26 August 2026Will the WHO declare a new pandemic in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$977.4kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$920.5kResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be Google's #1 most-searched person globally in 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$914.6kResolution: 31 December 2026