0 pp
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran's de facto head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.13mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.72mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will OpenSea launch a token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$5.55mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.43mActual outcome: Yes - 0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
75%
price $0.75
Does not happen
25%
price $0.25
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.41mResolution: 6 December 2026 Will Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin move in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.86mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.41mResolution: 10 October 2026Which team will win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Happens
25%
price $0.25
Does not happen
75%
price $0.75
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.25mResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Republicans control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.03mResolution: 1 February 2027 Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.85mResolution: 19 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
61%
price $0.61
Does not happen
39%
price $0.39
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.70mResolution: 31 October 2026 Will California pass a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the November 2026 election?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.68mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 American League MVP award?
Happens
91%
price $0.91
Does not happen
9%
price $0.09
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.45mResolution: 8 December 2026 Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.25mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.22mResolution: 31 October 2026 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.08mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Taylor Fritz beat Brandon Nakashima at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.85mResolution: 28 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.78mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.65mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will Jeffrey Epstein be confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.56mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.51mResolution: 31 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.46mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.39mResolution: 31 December 2026Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.37mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka's railway station by the end of 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.28mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.22mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.19mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.16mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.15mResolution: 1 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.13mActual outcome: No Will Donald Trump leave office as US President before 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.04mResolution: 31 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.04mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will China invade Taiwan by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.01mResolution: 30 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
32%
price $0.32
Does not happen
68%
price $0.68
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.93mResolution: 30 April 2027 Will Jessica Pegula beat Amanda Anisimova at the 2026 Cincinnati Open?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.92mResolution: 28 August 2026