0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.65mActual outcome: No
Events
Will the US record at least 10,000 measles cases in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.53mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market cap exceed ¥400 billion in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$6.23mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will OpenSea launch a token by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$5.67mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.57mActual outcome: Yes Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 2026?
Happens
78%
price $0.78
Does not happen
22%
price $0.22
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.50mResolution: 31 October 2026Will Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin move in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$5.31mResolution: 1 January 2027Which team will win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.91mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.56mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
46%
price $0.46
Does not happen
54%
price $0.54
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.33mResolution: 19 April 2027 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 American League MVP award?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.29mResolution: 8 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.19mResolution: 23 February 2027 Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.04mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.99mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will California pass a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the November 2026 election?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.95mResolution: 4 November 2026Will the US announce the end of its naval blockade on Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
36%
price $0.36
Does not happen
64%
price $0.64
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.94mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy cease to be President of Ukraine by the end of 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.64mResolution: 1 January 2027Will the United States invade Cuba in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.64mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state on 31 December 2026?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.63mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will China and Taiwan have a military clash before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.49mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.43mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Ukraine recapture any territory in Crimea by 31 December 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.34mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 Premier League title?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$3.31mResolution: 30 May 2027 Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.31mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.26mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum fall to $1,500 or lower before the end of 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.23mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.05mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
20%
price $0.20
Does not happen
80%
price $0.80
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.99mActual outcome: No Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.98mResolution: 31 October 2026Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.87mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.79mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Jeffrey Epstein be confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.50mActual outcome: No