0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.25mResolution: 1 August 2026
Events
- Hot+11.2 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.88mResolution: 31 July 2026 - โ2.5 pp
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.86mResolution: 1 August 2026 - Hot0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 31 July 2026 - Hot+0.1 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mResolution: 13 August 2026 - +10.5 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$655.6kResolution: 4 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$641.6kResolution: 1 August 2026 - Hot
Will Israel and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$619.4kResolution: 31 July 2026 - โ8.5 pp
Will Ethereum's price reach $2,000 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
11%
price $0.11
Does not happen
89%
price $0.89
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$603.2kResolution: 1 August 2026 - Hotโ0.3 pp
Will 30 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a single day before 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$494.4kResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Did XRP's price reach $3.00 at any point in July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$421.4kResolution: 1 August 2026 - โ0.5 pp
Will Iran formally announce its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States by 15 August 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$413.2kResolution: 15 August 2026 - Hot+17.7 pp
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$234.9kResolution: 31 July 2026 - Hot+10.6 pp
Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 July 2026?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$174.3kResolution: 31 July 2026 - Hot+0.4 pp
Will the US Send a Warship Through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$99.1kResolution: 31 July 2026