Will Likud win the most seats in Israel's 2026 election?
Happens
31%
price $0.31
Does not happen
69%
price $0.69
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$710.6kResolution: 28 October 2026
Events
Will the 2026 US midterm elections take place as scheduled on 3 November 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$703.5kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Pete Hegseth leave the role of US Secretary of Defense by 31 December 2026?
Happens
21%
price $0.21
Does not happen
79%
price $0.79
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$676.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Republicans win the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$649.9kResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$646.2kActual outcome: No Will Count Binface finish second in the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$581.2kResolution: 13 August 2026Will the Democratic Party win the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate race?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$568.6kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Pedro Sánchez cease to be Prime Minister of Spain by 31 December 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$493.4kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Republican candidate win the Nebraska U.S. Senate race in 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$487.5kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Republicans win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate race?
Happens
57%
price $0.57
Does not happen
43%
price $0.43
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$465.0kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Alberta vote for independence from Canada in 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$454.5kResolution: 20 October 2026Will a Republican win the 2026 Texas governor race?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$429.3kResolution: 4 November 2026Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Ohio governor race?
Happens
83%
price $0.83
Does not happen
17%
price $0.17
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$414.6kResolution: 4 November 2026Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Nevada governor election?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$411.1kResolution: 4 November 2026Will a Democrat win the 2026 Wisconsin governor race?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$409.7kResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Justice Samuel Alito retire from the Supreme Court before January 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$394.7kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US government take a stake in Spirit Airlines in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$310.2kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$301.0kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$296.6kResolution: 27 October 2026Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$287.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$272.4kResolution: 6 October 2026Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Happens
47%
price $0.47
Does not happen
53%
price $0.53
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$271.6kResolution: 25 October 2027Will Oklahoma enact a statewide data center moratorium by 30 June 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$248.0kResolution: 1 July 2027Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election by less than 5 percentage points?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$229.0kActual outcome: NoWill Trump Announce a New White House Press Secretary by the End of 2026?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$228.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ohio enact a statewide data center moratorium by the end of 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$202.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Florida governor race?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$187.2kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$174.1kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Friedrich Merz stop being Chancellor of Germany before 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$167.2kActual outcome: NoWill the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Michigan governor race?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$166.2kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Scott Jennings Be Named the Next White House Press Secretary?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$153.6kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Christine Fréchette become Premier of Quebec after the 2026 election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$91.7kResolution: 6 October 2026Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for US President before the end of 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$89.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Pedro Sánchez be the next of this group of world leaders to leave office before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$57.9kResolution: 1 January 2027