+1 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.74mResolution: 4 October 2026
Events
- +1 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.06mResolution: 30 September 2026 - Hot0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mResolution: 13 August 2026 - +10.5 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$655.6kResolution: 4 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$641.6kResolution: 1 August 2026