0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.74mResolution: 3 November 2026
Events
- โ0.1 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.17mResolution: 4 January 2027 - +1 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.74mResolution: 4 October 2026 - +1 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.06mResolution: 30 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will Republicans control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.31mResolution: 1 February 2027 - Hot0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.73mResolution: 31 July 2026 - +12.2 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.58mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$2.23mResolution: 3 November 2026 - โ1.5 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
29%
price $0.29
Does not happen
71%
price $0.71
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.72mResolution: 30 April 2027 - +0.1 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.36mResolution: 3 November 2026 - โ3 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.32mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 - +0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mResolution: 13 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.08mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - โ2 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$690.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 - +10.5 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$655.6kResolution: 4 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before 1 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$641.6kResolution: 1 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$600.1kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the US government take a stake in Spirit Airlines in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$290.9kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Justice Samuel Alito retire from the Supreme Court before January 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$264.8kResolution: 1 January 2027