0 pp
Will the Fed Change Interest Rates at Its October 2026 Meeting?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$16.74mResolution: 29 October 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.84mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$10.02mResolution: 9 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.47mResolution: 1 January 2027 Will BP be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.07mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.02mResolution: 2 January 2027 Will the Fed change interest rates after its December 2026 meeting?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 9 December 2026Will the Fed funds target upper bound end 2026 at three percent?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$503.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $100 a Barrel in October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$478.7kActual outcome: YesWill the United States announce a ban on diesel exports by 31 October 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$276.6kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Jerome Powell announce his departure or leave as a Federal Reserve Governor before 1 January 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$235.7kActual outcome: No