0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.18mResolution: 1 January 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.00mResolution: 1 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.69mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.83mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.66mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
44%
price $0.44
Does not happen
56%
price $0.56
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.50mResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.50mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
82%
price $0.82
Does not happen
18%
price $0.18
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$876.8kResolution: 31 December 2026