Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.64mResolution: 10 October 2026
Events
Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 30 September 2026?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.17mResolution: 1 October 2026- 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.00mResolution: 1 October 2026 - Hot
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 15 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.51mResolution: 15 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.13mResolution: 1 October 2026 Will China invade Taiwan by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.12mResolution: 1 October 2026Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.93mResolution: 30 September 2026Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$892.3kResolution: 30 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Russia capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station by 30 September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$709.2kResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic return to normal by 31 October 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$654.4kResolution: 31 October 2026Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 October 2026?
Happens
76%
price $0.76
Does not happen
24%
price $0.24
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$549.3kResolution: 31 October 2026Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by 30 November 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$343.5kResolution: 30 November 2026Will the US carry out a military strike on Iran before 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$343.0kResolution: 31 October 2026Will the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be effectively closed to shipping by 31 October 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$313.9kResolution: 1 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Iran carry out a military strike on Ukraine by 30 September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$169.6kResolution: 30 September 2026