How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if the United States and Iran have mutually signed, or both formally adopted without signature, a written diplomatic instrument that qualifies as a final nuclear deal, by 30 November 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It settles at nothing if that has not happened. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that outcome is: a contract trading at 0.30, for example, implies the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance, not that the outcome is confirmed either way. Settlement is based on official government statements from both countries and the text of any signed or adopted document; a position can generally be sold before the resolution date at whatever price the market is offering at that time.
Yes3%
No97%
Probability
How the price has moved
The consensus price stands at 7%, a level consistent with a market that sees the specific conditions for resolution โ a mutually signed or formally adopted final instrument within a hard deadline โ as currently absent rather than merely uncertain. With $268,406 in total volume concentrated on a single tracked venue, the market is thin relative to larger geopolitical questions, but the low price itself is the clearer signal: it implies traders are pricing this close to a near-certain No rather than treating it as genuinely contested. No specific news-driven swing is identified in the available data, which is itself informative: a flat, low reading suggests the market has not seen a development serious enough to move it meaningfully in either direction recently.
Analysis
Context
Iran's nuclear program has been the subject of on-and-off diplomacy for over a decade. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action capped Iran's enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, but the United States withdrew from that deal in 2018 under the first Trump administration, reimposing sanctions. Indirect talks, often mediated by Oman, continued intermittently in the years that followed without producing a replacement agreement.
In 2025 the situation escalated sharply. Israeli and then US strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, including facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, after talks stalled. Later that year, the UK, France and Germany triggered the JCPOA's snapback mechanism at the United Nations, restoring UN sanctions on Iran that had been lifted under the original deal. That sequence left both governments further from a negotiated settlement than at almost any point since 2015.
As of November 2026, there is no confirmed, ongoing formal negotiation between Washington and Tehran aimed at a comprehensive replacement agreement. Any deal covered by this question would need to be a written instrument that both governments sign or formally adopt, not a verbal understanding or a partial technical arrangement.
The consensus figure sits at 7%, drawn from Polymarket, which is currently the only venue tracked for this question with meaningful activity, carrying roughly $268,406 in total volume. Because there is a single active venue rather than several pricing the same question, there is no cross-venue spread to interpret here โ the number is one market's current collective estimate, not an average smoothing out disagreement between platforms. A 7% price on a geopolitical event with a hard, narrow deadline typically reflects a market that sees the structural obstacles as dominant over any residual chance of a surprise.
The structural obstacles are substantial. The last comprehensive US-Iran nuclear agreement, the 2015 JCPOA, took roughly two years of sustained multilateral negotiation to produce, involving the P5+1 framework rather than a bilateral US-Iran track alone. The current environment is far less conducive: 2025 saw direct military strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and the reimposition of UN sanctions through the snapback mechanism triggered by the UK, France and Germany. Neither of those developments is the backdrop against which a signed final deal is typically produced within weeks.
The resolution window itself is a major constraint independent of politics. The question requires a mutually signed or formally adopted instrument by 30 November 2026, which from today, 4 November 2026, leaves under four weeks. Diplomatic instruments of this scale โ covering enrichment limits, verification regimes, sanctions relief sequencing and often side agreements on missile or regional activity โ are rarely finalized that quickly even when both sides want an agreement, let alone when no confirmed formal talks are underway.
What would move the price is specific and identifiable rather than speculative: a confirmed resumption of Oman- or Qatar-mediated talks with a named date for a signing ceremony, a joint statement referencing a draft text, or public remarks from the US Secretary of State or Iran's Foreign Minister indicating a document is near completion. Absent those markers, the market's low level reflects an assessment that the diplomatic machinery required for this specific outcome, within this specific window, is not currently in motion.
What moves the probability
No active signing track
There is no publicly confirmed, ongoing negotiation aimed at producing a signable final instrument. This is the dominant reason the price sits low, since a deal cannot be signed without a text being drafted and agreed first.
Aftermath of 2025 strikes
US and Israeli strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan in 2025 hardened positions on both sides and reduced the near-term appetite in Tehran for a US-brokered agreement. This pushes the probability down and makes a rapid reversal less likely within weeks.
UN snapback sanctions
The 2025 reimposition of UN sanctions through the E3-triggered snapback mechanism changed Iran's economic leverage calculation and complicated any sanctions-relief package the US might offer. This adds another layer of negotiation that a quick deal would need to resolve.
Narrow resolution window
The question requires signature or formal adoption by 30 November 2026, leaving under four weeks from today. Even a resumed negotiation with genuine momentum would likely need more time than this window allows to produce a final, mutually signed text.
Domestic political constraints
Both the US administration and Iran's leadership face domestic audiences skeptical of concessions, which historically has slowed ratification and signing even after technical agreement is reached, as seen during the original JCPOA process.
The case for
- Oman or Qatar could announce a resumed back-channel with both governments confirming a near-final draft text before 30 November 2026.
- Economic pressure from the 2025 UN snapback sanctions could push Tehran toward a faster settlement than domestic politics would normally allow.
- A US administration seeking a high-profile diplomatic win could accelerate talks to produce a signing before the end of November.
- Both sides could agree to a narrower technical instrument that still meets the resolution criteria of a formally adopted document on the nuclear program.
The case against
- No formal negotiating channel between Washington and Tehran has been publicly confirmed as active heading into November 2026.
- The 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the reimposition of UN sanctions have deepened distrust rather than built toward a signing.
- Comprehensive nuclear agreements historically take months or years to draft and ratify, not the under-four-week window remaining before 30 November 2026.
- Domestic political constraints in both Washington and Tehran have repeatedly stalled past rounds of indirect talks before they reached a signable text.
What to watch
The resolution date is 30 November 2026, with final settlement determined by 1 December 2026 based on official US and Iranian government statements and the text of any signed or adopted instrument. Before then, the specific things that would move this price are: any announcement of resumed Oman- or Qatar-mediated talks, statements from the US State Department or Iran's Foreign Ministry referencing a draft or near-final text, and any scheduled meeting between senior US and Iranian officials. Given the narrow window, a credible signing announcement would likely need to surface within the next two to three weeks to be reflected in a completed deal before the deadline.
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