How the contract works
A contract on this market settles at $1 if the ceasefire holds through 31 August 2026 and at nothing if the United States carries out a qualifying strike before then. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that holding is โ a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance the ceasefire survives, though that is a hypothetical, not this market's actual level. Settlement is based on verified reports of US military action against Iran, specifically an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iranian territory; intercepted munitions, small drone or anti-tank strikes, cyber operations, and ground incursions do not count toward a NO. A position in this contract can generally be sold before 31 August at whatever price the market is quoting at that time.
Yes92%
No8%
Probability
How the price has moved
The consensus has settled at 91% on $645,378 of total volume, all of it on a single venue, Polymarket. That level is consistent with a question whose window is short and whose bar for a NO resolution is narrow, rather than evidence of a dramatic recent shift, since no day-over-day or week-over-week move is reported here. With only one venue pricing the contract, there is no cross-venue spread to check for disagreement; the number should be read as a snapshot of where the market currently stands rather than a trend line.
Analysis
Context
This market asks whether the current ceasefire between the United States and Iran will still be intact at the end of August 2026. The question is binary and narrowly defined: it does not ask whether tensions ease or whether diplomacy advances, only whether Washington carries out a specific category of military strike on Iranian soil before the deadline. That narrow framing matters because it means the ceasefire can survive plenty of friction โ rhetoric, sanctions, proxy activity, even limited exchanges โ without the market resolving NO.
The consensus across the one venue tracking this question, Polymarket, sits at 91%, on $645,378 of total volume. That is a high level for a geopolitical contract with a live military dimension, and it says something specific: traders see the remaining window, seven days from today, as short enough and the bar for a NO outcome as narrow enough that a qualifying strike is the exception rather than the expectation. The settlement rules do a lot of the work here. By excluding FPV drones, anti-tank guided missiles, cyber operations, and ground incursions, and by requiring a strike to directly impact Iranian territory, the rules rule out most of the lower-intensity friction that regularly occurs between adversarial states without counting as a ceasefire breach for this contract. That narrowing is a large part of why the price sits where it does: it is not pricing the absence of all US-Iran tension, only the absence of one specific, high-visibility category of action. With only one venue actively pricing the contract, there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement, and no second data point to check the number against. That is worth stating plainly rather than glossing over: a single-venue market with under $650,000 in total volume can be moved by a handful of large trades, and a headline event โ an Israeli strike on Iran, an Iranian provocation in the Gulf, a US statement threatening retaliation โ could move the price quickly even without a change in the underlying settlement facts. The short remaining timeframe cuts both ways. It reduces the number of days in which a qualifying strike could occur, which supports a high YES price, but it also means the market has little room to reprice gradually if news breaks late in the window.
What moves the probability
Seven days left on the clock
The window runs only from now until 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A shorter runway mechanically reduces the number of days in which a qualifying strike could occur, which supports a high probability that the ceasefire survives to the deadline.
Narrow trigger for NO
Only a direct US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike on Iranian territory counts. Drone strikes, ATGMs, cyber operations and ground incursions are explicitly excluded, meaning a wide range of lower-intensity actions would not break the ceasefire under these rules.
Regional escalation risk
An Israeli-Iran flare-up, an attack on US forces in the region, or an Iranian move against shipping in the Gulf could pull Washington into a strike that meets the qualifying definition. This is the main path by which the price could move sharply lower before 31 August.
Thin, single-venue market
Only Polymarket lists this contract, with $645,378 in total volume. That is enough to generate a stable-looking consensus but thin enough that a small number of large trades, rather than a broad shift in sentiment, could move the price.
The case for
- No US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike hits Iranian territory at any point before 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
- Washington maintains its current posture for the remaining days of the window without a triggering event drawing it into direct action.
- Under the settlement rules, lower-intensity friction such as drone strikes, ATGMs, cyber operations, or ground incursions can occur without breaking the ceasefire for purposes of this contract.
The case against
- A single confirmed US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iranian territory before the deadline resolves the market NO immediately.
- A regional escalation involving Israel, Iranian proxies, or US forces in the Gulf could draw a US response that meets the qualifying definition within the remaining week.
- A market this close to unanimous can still be wrong-footed by a single fast-moving news event, since the price reflects current expectations, not a guarantee about what happens next.
What to watch
The deadline itself, 31 August 2026 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, is the hard cutoff for this market. Between now and then, the relevant triggers are any reported US air or missile strike on Iranian soil, any escalation between Israel and Iran that could draw in US forces, and any statement from the US administration signalling a change in posture toward Tehran. Because the settlement rules exclude drone strikes, ATGMs, cyber activity and ground incursions, those categories of news, however dramatic, would not by themselves move this specific contract toward NO.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee