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Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026?

Resolution: Updated:

In short

The market currently treats a continued ceasefire as more likely than not, reflecting the fact that no qualifying air or missile strike between Israel and Iran has been reported since the truce took hold. The main risk to that view is a single confirmed strike โ€” by either side or by a proxy force that draws a direct response โ€” which under the resolution rules would settle the market No immediately, regardless of how the broader relationship develops afterward.

Editorial illustration for: Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 15 November 2026?

How the contract works

A contract on this market settles at $1 if no qualifying strike happens between Israel and Iran before 15 November 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, and at nothing if one does. A qualifying strike is defined specifically as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the other country's territory; intercepted munitions, surface-to-air fire, small-arms exchanges, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, and minor or short-range strikes are all explicitly excluded and do not trigger a No resolution. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers collectively think the chance of a holding ceasefire is โ€” a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply traders see roughly a three-in-ten chance the truce survives, not this market's actual level. Settlement is based on reports of qualifying strikes through the deadline, and a position in the contract can be sold before then at whatever price the market has moved to.
What the market thinks happens
$100
Yes59%

The event happens

Costs now
$0.59
If you put in $100
$169
No41%

The event does not happen

Costs now
$0.41
If you put in $100
$244

Probability

History starts collecting once the event is tracked

How the price has moved

The available data shows a consensus probability of 68% on Polymarket, the sole venue currently trading this contract, with total volume of $264,265. No separate day-over-day or week-over-week movement figures or opening-level data are available for this market, and with trading concentrated on a single venue there is no cross-venue spread to compare against. The absence of a reported price history does not itself indicate stability or volatility โ€” it simply means the current level is the clearest data point available, reflecting participants' current assessment that the ceasefire is more likely than not to hold through mid-November but is not treated as a near-certainty.

Analysis

Context

This market tracks whether the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reached after a period of direct military exchanges between the two countries, survives intact through 15 November 2026. The question does not ask whether tensions ease or whether the underlying dispute over Iran's nuclear and missile programs is resolved โ€” only whether either side launches a strike that lands on the other's territory before the deadline. Both governments remain the central actors, with Washington playing a mediating and deterrent role given its military presence and diplomatic ties to Israel. Ceasefires between Israel and Iran, and between Israel and Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have a history of being tested by proxy incidents even when direct state-to-state strikes pause. That history is why the resolution criteria for this market are drawn narrowly: only a strike that directly impacts the other country's territory counts, which excludes a wide range of lower-level friction that has previously accompanied periods of nominal calm.
The market-implied probability sits at 68% on Polymarket, the only venue currently trading this contract, with total volume of $264,265. That volume is modest for a geopolitical market of this profile, which matters for how much weight to put on the price: with one venue and a comparatively thin order book, the 68% figure represents a narrower set of participants than a multi-venue market with deeper liquidity would, and it can move more on a single large position than a more heavily traded contract would. The resolution criteria themselves are a significant driver of where the price sits. By excluding intercepted munitions, naval gunfire, artillery, small-arms fire, and short-range or minor strikes, the rules carve out most of the lower-intensity friction that has historically accompanied cooling-off periods between Israel and Iran-aligned actors. That narrows the path to a No resolution to a specific, visible event โ€” a confirmed air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike landing on the other country's territory โ€” which is both easier to verify and, arguably, a higher bar than a broader definition of "ceasefire violation" would set. This pushes the price above what a looser definition might produce. At the same time, 68% is far from treating this as settled. A probability in this range reflects real uncertainty about whether either government, or a proxy force whose actions could draw a direct response, stays within the line the resolution rules draw over the remaining weeks. The deadline itself โ€” 15 November 2026, with final settlement the next day โ€” leaves a window of roughly four weeks from today in which a single strike changes the outcome entirely, unlike a market that resolves gradually. That structure, where one event can flip the result outright, is part of why the price has settled in the upper-but-not-extreme range rather than closer to the high-90s levels seen in markets considered nearly certain.

What moves the probability

  1. US diplomatic and military posture

    Washington's continued diplomatic engagement and regional military presence act as a restraint on both sides, since neither government wants to be seen triggering a wider conflict that draws in US forces. This pushes toward the ceasefire holding, and is one of the larger factors behind the price sitting above 50%.

  2. Proxy-force risk

    Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Iran-aligned groups operate with some independence from Tehran, and an action by one of them that draws an Israeli response landing in Iran โ€” or vice versa โ€” could trigger a qualifying strike even if neither government intends direct escalation. This is the main channel by which the ceasefire could break down despite restraint at the state level.

  3. Narrow definition of a qualifying strike

    Because intercepted munitions, artillery, naval gunfire, and short-range strikes are explicitly excluded from resolution, many categories of friction that occurred in past Israel-Iran flare-ups would not move this market to No. This technical detail raises the probability relative to a broader definition of ceasefire violation.

  4. Iran's domestic and economic constraints

    Iran's government has incentives tied to sanctions relief and economic stabilization that favor avoiding a resumption of direct conflict with Israel in the near term. This pushes toward the ceasefire holding, though it is a softer constraint than direct deterrence.

  5. Unresolved nuclear and missile dispute

    The underlying dispute over Iran's nuclear and missile programs remains unsettled by the ceasefire itself, meaning the structural cause of prior strikes has not gone away. This keeps the probability well short of near-certainty even if no incident has occurred recently.

The case for

  • No qualifying air or missile strike between Israel and Iran has been reported since the ceasefire took effect, and that track record needs to continue for only about four more weeks to reach the 15 November 2026 deadline.
  • The resolution criteria exclude intercepted munitions, naval gunfire, artillery, small-arms fire, and minor or short-range strikes, narrowing the path to a No outcome to a specific and verifiable category of event.
  • Continued US diplomatic engagement and military presence in the region create a deterrent against either government initiating a strike that would be clearly attributable and escalatory.
  • Iran's interest in economic stabilization gives its government a practical incentive to avoid actions that would invite renewed Israeli strikes on its territory.

The case against

  • A single confirmed air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike landing on either country's territory before 15 November 2026 resolves the market No immediately, regardless of context or provocation.
  • Proxy groups such as Hezbollah or the Houthis operate with some independence, and an action by one of them could draw an Israeli response that qualifies as a strike on Iranian territory even without direct state intent.
  • The dispute over Iran's nuclear and missile programs remains unresolved by the ceasefire, leaving the structural cause of previous direct strikes in place.
  • The roughly four-week window remaining before the deadline is long enough for a miscalculation or escalation cycle to develop, particularly if regional tensions involving Hezbollah or the Houthis intensify.

What to watch

The key date is 15 November 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, the deadline after which the contract settles based on whether any qualifying strike occurred; final settlement follows on 16 November 2026. Between now and then, the main things to watch are any reported Israeli or Iranian air or missile activity directly affecting the other's territory, actions by Hezbollah or the Houthis that could draw a direct Israeli or Iranian response, and statements from US officials on continued diplomatic engagement or military posture in the region. Any confirmed strike meeting the resolution definition would settle the market immediately, well before the deadline.

Trade this contract

Venues (1)

Open on PolymarketYes 0.59
  • gas covered
  • no trading fee

More about this event

Venues (1)

Resolution rules

Determined by
Polymarket; based on reports of Israeli or Iranian military strikes directly impacting the other's territory
Resolution date

This market is determined by Polymarket based on reports of Israeli or Iranian military strikes directly impacting the other's territory. It resolves Yes if no air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting the other country occurs between Israel and Iran through 15 November 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, with final settlement on 16 November 2026. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, and minor or short-range strikes do not count toward a No resolution.

Calculation methodology โ†’

Local context

US policy and military deployments in the Middle East are directly tied to whether this ceasefire holds, and that connection reaches readers well beyond the region. A breakdown would likely affect oil prices given the proximity of both countries to major energy transit routes, with knock-on effects for fuel costs and broader market sentiment in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere. It also bears on US defense and foreign policy commitments, since continued American diplomatic and military engagement is one of the factors markets are pricing into the probability that the truce survives.

Common questions

What exactly settles this market, and when?
The market settles based on reports of Israeli or Iranian military strikes directly impacting the other's territory. It resolves Yes if no such qualifying strike occurs through 15 November 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, with final settlement on 16 November 2026, and No if one occurs before that.
What counts as a qualifying strike under the rules?
Only an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the other country's territory counts. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, and minor or short-range strikes are all explicitly excluded.
What does the current market price actually mean?
The price reflects what traders collectively think the probability is that the ceasefire holds without a qualifying strike through the deadline. It is not a prediction from any government or institution, and it can change as new information or reported incidents emerge.
What happens if an incident is ambiguous, like a proxy strike or an unclear attribution?
The resolution relies on reports of strikes directly impacting Israeli or Iranian territory, so an action by a proxy group that does not directly hit either country's territory would not by itself trigger a No resolution. Attribution and reporting clarity would matter in any disputed case, since the rule is tied to direct territorial impact, not intent or source.
Why isn't the probability higher given that no strike has occurred so far?
A probability in the high-60s reflects roughly four more weeks of risk before the 15 November 2026 deadline, during which a single strike โ€” by either state or by a proxy drawing a direct response โ€” would flip the outcome entirely. The underlying dispute over Iran's nuclear and missile programs also remains unresolved, which keeps the market short of near-certainty.
What if the ceasefire is renegotiated or extended before the deadline?
The market only tracks whether a qualifying strike occurs by 15 November 2026, not the formal status of any ceasefire agreement. A renegotiation that avoided a qualifying strike would still allow the market to resolve Yes.

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