How the contract works
A contract on this market settles at $1 if no qualifying strike occurs between Israel and Iran before the deadline, and at nothing if one does. The deadline is 9 August 2026 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A qualifying strike means an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the other country; intercepted munitions, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, and minor short-range strikes do not count. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of a qualifying strike is โ a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance the ceasefire breaks before settlement. A position bought today can be sold before 9 August 2026 at whatever price the market shows at that time.
Yes94%
No6%
Probability
How the price has moved
The probability opened at 73% when first recorded on 29 July 2026 and traded in a 67% to 78% range for a stretch afterward, indicating real uncertainty in the market's early days. It has since risen to 93% and stayed there, with no change over the most recent 24 hours. The move follows no single publicly reported trigger; what can be said is that the market went from pricing meaningful risk of a break to pricing the ceasefire as close to settled, and has not revised that view since.
Analysis
Context
The ceasefire being tracked here followed the direct military conflict between Israel and Iran that erupted in mid-2025, when the two countries traded strikes for twelve days and the United States carried out attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities before brokering a halt. Since then, both governments have avoided the kind of direct strike that ended the earlier truce attempts, even as tension over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxy groups, and sanctions enforcement has continued.
This contract asks a narrow question: does that arrangement survive, without a qualifying strike, through 9 August 2026. It does not ask whether relations improve or whether Iran's nuclear program advances. It asks only whether either side crosses a specific military line before a specific date.
The actors that matter are the Israeli government, Iran's military and political leadership, and the US, which brokered the original ceasefire and remains the outside power most likely to intervene diplomatically if either side moves toward escalation.
When this market was first recorded on 29 July 2026, the probability of the ceasefire holding stood at 73%. Over the following days it ranged between 67% and 78%, a band consistent with a market still weighing real risk of a qualifying strike rather than treating the outcome as settled. It has since moved to 93% and held there, with no change in the last 24 hours. That is a large re-rating โ roughly 15 to 25 percentage points above the range recorded in the market's first days โ and the fact that it happened without a big move in the day-to-day figures since suggests the shift reflected a step change in how traders read the situation, not gradual drift. No single publicly reported trigger for that shift is identified here, and it should be treated as an unexplained repricing rather than attributed to a specific event.\n\nThe settlement rules themselves push the probability upward mechanically. The bar for a No resolution is high: it requires an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the other country. Naval gunfire, artillery, cyber operations, small-arms exchanges, and intercepted munitions are explicitly excluded. Given how much of the low-level friction between Israel and Iran in the past year has involved exactly these excluded categories, a narrow reading of the rules means many plausible incidents would not flip this market to No even if they made headlines.\n\nLiquidity here is thin by the standards of major political contracts. All $885,957 in recorded volume and all 29 price observations come from a single venue, Polymarket. That matters for how much weight to put on the current level: with only one venue trading, there is no cross-market check on the price, and a market this size can move on relatively modest trading activity. The five-day window remaining before the 9 August 2026 deadline is also short enough that the probability of a break, even if judged non-trivial in isolated weeks, compounds to a small number over such a brief span.
What moves the probability
Narrow breach definition
Only an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting the other country counts as breaking the truce. Naval, cyber, artillery, and intercepted-munition incidents are excluded by rule, which raises the practical bar for a No outcome and pushes the price toward Yes.
Short remaining window
Only five days separate today, 4 August 2026, from the 9 August 2026 deadline. A shorter window mechanically lowers the cumulative chance that a qualifying strike occurs before settlement, even if daily risk is unchanged.
US brokered arrangement
The ceasefire originated with US diplomatic and military involvement after the 2025 conflict. Continued US engagement raises the political cost for either Israel or Iran of being the side that visibly restarts direct strikes.
Thin, single-venue market
All recorded volume and price history come from one venue, Polymarket, with no other venue to cross-check the level. That makes the current price more sensitive to individual large trades than a deeper, multi-venue market would be.
The case for
- No qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike has been reported since the current ceasefire took effect after the 2025 conflict.
- The resolution window is short, closing at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 9 August 2026, leaving little time for a new escalation cycle to develop and execute.
- The settlement rules exclude naval, cyber, artillery, and intercepted-munition incidents, meaning many plausible low-level frictions would not flip the outcome even if reported.
- Both governments have so far avoided direct strikes despite ongoing disputes over Iran's nuclear program and regional proxy activity.
The case against
- Iran or Israel could conduct a qualifying strike in response to a specific triggering event, such as a new nuclear-related development or a proxy attack attributed to one side.
- Cross-border incidents involving naval forces, cyber operations, or proxy groups could escalate quickly into the kind of direct air or missile strike that would break the ceasefire.
- Domestic political pressure inside either Israel or Iran could push leadership toward a strike before the 9 August 2026 deadline regardless of the diplomatic cost.
- The market itself is thinly traded on a single venue, so the current level may not reflect a broad, tested consensus.
What to watch
The clock runs out at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 9 August 2026, the point at which this contract settles regardless of what has or has not happened. Between now and then, the specific things that would move this price are any news report of an Israeli or Iranian air strike or missile strike hitting the other country, statements from Israeli, Iranian, or US officials about the status of the truce, and any escalation involving proxy groups or naval incidents that could plausibly cross into qualifying territory under the settlement rules.
Trade this contract
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