Reading a YES/NO price
YES at $0.63 loosely implies a 63% market probability. It is not a calibrated guarantee: price also reflects liquidity, fees, capital constraints and participant mix.
At settlement the winning share pays $1 and the loser $0. One hundred YES shares at $0.63 cost about $63 before fees, have a maximum gross payout of $100 and can lose almost the full cost.
The roles of Wallet and Predict.fun
Wallet aggregates markets, creates a Keyless Prediction Account and currently sponsors gas. Predict.fun supplies the events, on-chain execution and resolution protocol; Binance is not the counterparty.
A market opened directly and through Wallet may be the same order book. farexio keeps access routes separate while deduplicating liquidity and volume at contract level.
Create and fund Prediction Account
- 01
Open Markets → Prediction
Update the app and select an event. First use starts the account setup.
- 02
Confirm the Keyless Account
A dedicated address is created automatically without manual seed setup for this flow.
- 03
Choose funding
Use an eligible Spot/Funding balance or transfer in advance through Assets → Prediction.
- 04
Check the dedicated balance
Prediction funds are separate from the general Wallet balance.
Market and limit orders
A market order consumes the best available offers, so its average price can be worse than the card price. A limit order caps buy price or sets a minimum sell price, but can remain open or fill partially.
- Inspect book depth.
- Allow for partial fills.
- Cancel stale limits.
- Subtract entry cost and fees from any displayed payout.
Market close, resolution and redemption
After trading closes, the named source determines the outcome. Wording, timezone, source and cancellation clauses override informal interpretations.
Winning tokens can be redeemed after final resolution. A pending state is not a loss; follow settlement status and the available Redeem/Claim action.
Sports-specific traps
Check whether the contract covers a match, map, period, BO3/BO5 series, qualification or tournament winner. Confirm overtime, draws and postponed/cancelled event treatment.
Roster news may already be priced. Compare the time of new information with recent trades and available depth.
Position sizing and expected value
Compare an independently estimated probability p with all-in cost c. A rough expected value is p × $1 − c, but only if p is defensible and resolution rules are clear.
Several contracts tied to one team, candidate or macro scenario are correlated—not independent diversification.