0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$42.55mActual outcome: No
Events
- 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
91%
price $0.91
Does not happen
9%
price $0.09
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$34.00mResolution: 4 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$33.93mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 college football Heisman Trophy?
Happens
42%
price $0.42
Does not happen
58%
price $0.58
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$26.06mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$14.79mResolution: 4 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.88mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.54mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.76mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum be priced above $3,000 at the end of 2026?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.90mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.80mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.68mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 American League MVP award?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.30mResolution: 8 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.00mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.43mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.26mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.07mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
77%
price $0.77
Does not happen
23%
price $0.23
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.88mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.15mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.97mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.65mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.49mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.30mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be Google's #1 most-searched person globally in 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.29mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.06mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released before 1 January 2027?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$982.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Zohran Mamdani be named Time's Person of the Year for 2026?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$919.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the 2026 Super Bowl champion visit the White House before the end of 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$666.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Justice Samuel Alito retire from the Supreme Court before January 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$394.9kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the US government take a stake in Spirit Airlines in 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$310.2kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$291.4kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$275.1kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Drake be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in the U.S. in 2026?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$250.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Jerome Powell announce his departure or leave as a Federal Reserve Governor before 1 January 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$235.9kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Bad Bunny be the most-streamed artist on Spotify in 2026?
Happens
88%
price $0.88
Does not happen
12%
price $0.12
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$177.9kResolution: 1 January 2027