0 pp
Will the US government confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$64.69mActual outcome: No
Events
- 0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.45mResolution: 1 March 2027 - 0 pp
Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$26.52mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$19.94mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$15.05mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.09mResolution: 4 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the United States take control of any part of Greenland in 2026?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$11.08mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.76mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Ethereum be priced above $3,000 at the end of 2026?
Happens
29%
price $0.29
Does not happen
71%
price $0.71
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.77mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.75mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 college football Heisman Trophy?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.96mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Happens
68%
price $0.68
Does not happen
32%
price $0.32
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$6.64mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.72mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship?
Happens
75%
price $0.75
Does not happen
25%
price $0.25
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$5.41mResolution: 6 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Republicans control both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$4.03mResolution: 1 February 2027 - 0 pp
Who will win the 2026 American League MVP award?
Happens
91%
price $0.91
Does not happen
9%
price $0.09
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.45mResolution: 8 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will LeBron James retire before the 2026-27 NBA season starts?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.22mResolution: 31 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.61mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of 2026?
Happens
26%
price $0.26
Does not happen
74%
price $0.74
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.19mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before 1 October 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.15mResolution: 1 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.04mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi become Iran's head of state or government in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.82mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.59mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.49mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.42mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship for the 2026 season?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.33mResolution: 23 February 2027 - 0 pp
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels before July 2027?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.16mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.01mResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Paramount Complete a Takeover of Warner Bros. Before July 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$920.5kResolution: 1 July 2027 - 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be Google's #1 most-searched person globally in 2026?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$914.6kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Nicolรกs Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$828.0kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$764.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released before 1 January 2027?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$728.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will Kawhi Leonard's next NBA team be the Toronto Raptors?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$639.7kResolution: 21 October 2026