0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$33.54mResolution: 4 November 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$28.72mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$24.48mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law before 4 January 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$14.77mResolution: 4 January 2027 - 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$12.41mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.03mActual outcome: No Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$11.21mResolution: 26 October 2026- 0 pp
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$10.76mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$9.94mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 1 April 2027- 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.55mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
46%
price $0.46
Does not happen
54%
price $0.54
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.33mResolution: 19 April 2027 - 0 pp
Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.99mResolution: 3 November 2026 Will California pass a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the November 2026 election?
Happens
22%
price $0.22
Does not happen
78%
price $0.78
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.95mResolution: 4 November 2026Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.41mResolution: 5 October 2026Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
34%
price $0.34
Does not happen
66%
price $0.66
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.31mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.06mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Donald Trump leave office as US President before 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.83mResolution: 1 September 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.46mActual outcome: No Will Friedrich Merz stop being Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.34mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California governor election?
Happens
97%
price $0.97
Does not happen
3%
price $0.03
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.31mResolution: 4 November 2026Will Chad Bianco win the 2026 California Governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mActual outcome: No Will Mitch McConnell leave the Senate before his term ends?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.79mResolution: 4 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
48%
price $0.48
Does not happen
52%
price $0.52
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.62mResolution: 3 June 2026 Will Kamala Harris win the 2026 California Governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.57mResolution: 4 November 2026Will Byron Donalds Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: YesWill the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.34mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will the SAVE Act become law in the United States before 1 January 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.30mActual outcome: No Will the Democratic Party win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate race?
Happens
72%
price $0.72
Does not happen
28%
price $0.28
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.26mResolution: 4 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.17mResolution: 1 August 2026 - 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.11mActual outcome: No Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election?
Happens
70%
price $0.70
Does not happen
30%
price $0.30
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$896.1kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election?
Happens
74%
price $0.74
Does not happen
26%
price $0.26
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$891.9kResolution: 4 November 2026Will Miguel Dรญaz-Canel cease to be president of Cuba by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$758.1kResolution: 1 January 2027