+1 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
64%
price $0.64
Does not happen
36%
price $0.36
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.75mResolution: 4 October 2026
Events
- +1 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Happens
60%
price $0.60
Does not happen
40%
price $0.40
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$6.06mResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.18mResolution: 10 October 2026- −0.1 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.11mResolution: 13 August 2026 - +10 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$658.8kResolution: 4 August 2026 Will Darline Graham Nordone win the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 2026 special U.S. Senate election?
Happens
59%
price $0.59
Does not happen
41%
price $0.41
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$289.1kResolution: 11 August 2026