0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$12.18mActual outcome: No
Events
Will WTI Crude Oil Hit $100 a Barrel in October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$478.7kActual outcome: YesWill the United States announce a ban on diesel exports by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$286.0kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Jerome Powell announce his departure or leave as a Federal Reserve Governor before 1 January 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$236.1kActual outcome: No