+0.5 pp
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least once in 2026?
Happens
15%
price $0.15
Does not happen
85%
price $0.85
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$8.73mResolution: 31 December 2026
Events
- +4 pp
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2026?
Happens
66%
price $0.66
Does not happen
34%
price $0.34
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Binance WalletVolume: US$6.04mResolution: 9 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will the Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting?
Happens
45%
price $0.45
Does not happen
55%
price $0.55
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 16 September 2026 - 0 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap at the end of 2026?
Happens
57%
price $0.57
Does not happen
43%
price $0.43
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$915.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will SpaceX have the highest market cap of any company that IPOs in 2026?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$587.1kResolution: 31 December 2026- +7.5 pp
Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market capitalization at the end of August 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$109.4kResolution: 31 August 2026 - +4 pp
Will the Fed Change Interest Rates at Its October 2026 Meeting?
Happens
70%
price $0.70
Does not happen
30%
price $0.30
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$92.5kResolution: 28 October 2026