0 pp
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$26.73mActual outcome: No
Events
- 0 pp
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by 31 December 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.08mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.50mActual outcome: No Will the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be effectively closed to shipping by 31 October 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.67mActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by 31 December 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.09mActual outcome: No Will Iran Fully Close Its Airspace by 31 December 2026?
Happens
33%
price $0.33
Does not happen
67%
price $0.67
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$749.2kActual outcome: NoWill Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline resume operations by 31 October 2026?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$643.2kActual outcome: NoWill Israel withdraw its ground forces from beyond the Litani River in Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$534.3kActual outcome: NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 October 2026?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$501.9kActual outcome: NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks by 31 December 2026?
Happens
87%
price $0.87
Does not happen
13%
price $0.13
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$501.9kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Israel withdraw all its ground forces from Lebanon by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$279.5kActual outcome: No Will Houthi Forces Enter Aden, Yemen by the End of 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$235.5kActual outcome: NoWill Russia announce a new forced military mobilization by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$175.1kActual outcome: NoWill Donald Trump visit Ukraine by 31 December 2026?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$109.6kActual outcome: Yes