How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 per share if WTI's 1-minute trading data shows a high price at or above $110 at any point during August 2026, and at nothing if that threshold is never reached. A contract priced at, say, 0.30 would mean the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance of that spike happening โ that is a hypothetical, not this market's current price. Settlement is based on Pyth price data for the active-month WTI futures contract, and the outcome is determined shortly after trading closes on 31 August 2026, with resolution finalized by 1 September 2026. A position in this contract can typically be sold before that date at whatever price the market is quoting at the time, rather than held to settlement.
Yes4%
No96%
Probability
How the price has moved
The only figures available for this market are the current consensus of 4% and total trading volume of $354,334, all recorded on a single venue, Polymarket. Without a reported opening level or day-to-day price history, the honest reading is that the market has consistently treated a $110 spike as a low-probability tail event throughout the period covered by this data, rather than something whose odds have swung sharply in either direction. A single-venue market with modest volume also means the price reflects a relatively small pool of participants, so it should be read as one market's snapshot rather than a broad consensus.
Analysis
Context
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the main US crude oil benchmark, and its price feeds directly into gasoline prices, diesel costs and inflation readings. This contract asks whether WTI will trade at or above $110 a barrel at any single moment during August 2026, not whether it settles the month there โ a brief intraday spike would be enough. The last time WTI traded anywhere near that level was in the weeks after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when the price briefly touched roughly $130 amid fears of a global supply shortage. Since then, US shale output has grown, OPEC+ has periodically restored barrels to the market, and WTI has mostly traded well under $100. The actors that matter here are OPEC+ (which sets production quotas), US shale producers (who respond to price signals with drilling activity), and any geopolitical flashpoint โ the Strait of Hormuz, Russian export infrastructure, or Atlantic hurricane season โ that could remove barrels from the market abruptly.
The consensus reading across tracked venues sits at 4%, with all $354,334 in recorded trading volume concentrated on a single venue, Polymarket. A single-venue market with no cross-venue spread to compare means there is no disagreement between platforms to read into โ the number reflects one pool of participants pricing one outcome. A 4% reading on a $110 threshold is a statement that the market sees this as a low-probability tail event rather than a near-term expectation, but not one dismissed as impossible; 4% still implies real money is priced against a scenario most traders do not expect to unfold. What makes $110 a meaningful bar is distance from where WTI has spent most of the past several years โ it is a level the market last saw during an acute geopolitical shock in 2022, not during ordinary supply-demand cycles. For the price to clear $110 even briefly, the market would need to price in a genuine supply disruption, not just headline volatility. August is also Atlantic hurricane season, a period when storms can force US Gulf Coast refineries and offshore platforms offline and briefly tighten crude supply โ a factor the market has almost certainly already weighed in arriving at a low but non-zero probability. Because the resolution rule only requires one 1-minute candle to touch $110, even a short-lived spike driven by a single piece of news โ an attack on tanker traffic, a surprise OPEC+ announcement, or a major refinery outage โ would be enough to trigger a Yes, which is part of why the price sits above zero despite the size of the move required.
What moves the probability
OPEC+ supply decisions
OPEC+ meets periodically to set production quotas, and a surprise cut large enough to tighten global supply would push prices higher; a decision to maintain or increase output pushes the other way. This is the single largest lever available to move oil prices within weeks rather than months.
Middle East and Russia geopolitics
An escalation that threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or further disrupts Russian export infrastructure would be the kind of shock that could send WTI toward $110 quickly, as it did in 2022. Absent such an event, prices tend to drift on ordinary supply-demand data rather than spike.
US Gulf hurricane activity
August falls within Atlantic hurricane season, when storms can force offshore platforms and refineries to shut down temporarily. A severe storm hitting Gulf of Mexico production would tighten near-term supply and is one of the more plausible near-term triggers for a brief price spike.
US shale production response
US shale output has expanded significantly since 2022, and producers tend to increase drilling when prices rise, which caps how far and how fast WTI can climb. This structural supply cushion is a large part of why the market prices a $110 spike as unlikely.
Fed policy and demand expectations
Weaker global growth expectations or a more restrictive Fed stance can dampen oil demand forecasts, pushing prices down and making a $110 spike less likely; the reverse โ stronger growth data โ modestly raises the odds.
The case for
- A significant supply disruption โ an attack on tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a major escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting exports, or a severe Gulf Coast hurricane โ occurs before 31 August 2026.
- OPEC+ announces a substantial, unexpected production cut that tightens global supply faster than shale producers can respond.
- Any one of these events only needs to push WTI's traded price to $110 for a single minute during August trading sessions for the contract to resolve Yes.
The case against
- WTI has traded well below $110 for most of the period since the 2022 spike, and no specific supply shock of that scale is currently underway.
- US shale production continues to respond to price increases with additional drilling, acting as a natural ceiling on how far prices can run in a short window.
- OPEC+ has generally moved to add barrels back to the market in recent years rather than restrict supply sharply, reducing the likelihood of a sudden shortage.
- The rule requires only a brief spike, but even short-lived spikes to that level have been rare outside of major geopolitical shocks, and no such shock is confirmed as of 10 August 2026.
What to watch
Key dates and events between now and 1 September 2026 include any scheduled OPEC+ ministerial meeting, weekly US Energy Information Administration petroleum status reports that track inventory draws or builds, and Atlantic hurricane forecasts and storm tracks through the Gulf of Mexico. Any escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting export terminals, or a flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz, would also be watched closely, since either could move WTI sharply within days. The contract resolves based on Pyth price data for the active-month WTI futures contract through 31 August 2026, so any of these events would need to occur, and be reflected in futures trading, before that date.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered