How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 per share if any 1-minute candle for the active WTI futures contract reaches $140 or higher at any point during August 2026, and at $0 if it never does. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that happening is; a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply traders see roughly a three-in-ten chance, though that is a hypothetical, not this market's actual price. Settlement is based on the Pyth Network WTI futures feed, and the outcome is locked in on 1 September 2026 once August trading has closed. A position taken now can typically be sold before that date at whatever price the market has moved to.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
The market-implied probability has sat at 0% across the period covered here, with no meaningful movement reported. A flat line at that level, sustained through nearly the entire settlement window, is not a sign of uncertainty; it reflects a market that considers the outcome close to impossible given where WTI has actually traded during August 2026. No single news event needs to explain the level, because the underlying price of oil itself has simply never approached the $140 threshold this month.
Analysis
Context
WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, is the main US crude oil benchmark and the price most closely tied to American gasoline costs and energy-sector earnings. This contract asks whether any 1-minute price candle for the active WTI futures contract touches or exceeds $140 per barrel at any point during August 2026, as recorded by the Pyth Network price feed. That threshold is far above where oil has traded in recent years.
WTI has approached triple digits only twice in modern history: briefly near $147 in July 2008 before the financial crisis, and again above $120 in March 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global energy flows. Even that 2022 shock, one of the sharpest supply-driven spikes in decades, did not reach $140. Since then, WTI has mostly traded in a much lower range, held down by steady non-OPEC supply growth, including US shale output, and periodic OPEC+ decisions on production quotas.
The contract settles automatically based on Pyth's published futures data, with no human adjudication once the price feed records a qualifying high or low.
The consensus figure across venues sits at 0%, and the only venue currently listing this contract, Polymarket, has traded $396,657 in volume without ever pricing a meaningful chance of Yes. That is a striking level of agreement for a contract on a commodity that is famously volatile. It reflects two things happening at once: WTI's actual price level, which has stayed well below $140 all month, and the calendar, since August 2026 is almost over and only a handful of trading sessions remain before the 1 September 2026 cutoff.
The scale of the gap matters more than the volatility of oil itself. Even during the sharpest oil shock in the last twenty years, the 2022 spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, WTI stopped short of $140. That episode involved a major producer's exports coming under direct threat, panic buying, and coordinated Western sanctions, and it still fell short of this contract's threshold. A move of the size required here, from wherever WTI is trading now to above $140 within a few remaining trading days, would need to exceed even that historical precedent, not just repeat it.
With no day-by-day price history supplied beyond the flat 0% consensus, the honest read is that this market has not shown any meaningful movement worth reporting. A contract that opens near zero and stays there through nearly the entire settlement period is not indecisive; it is a market that has concluded, with high confidence, that the underlying event will not happen. Volume of nearly $400,000 on a single venue suggests real interest in trading against the possibility of a spike, essentially treating this as a tail-risk hedge rather than a live expectation.
What would move this number now is narrow and specific: a sudden supply disruption large enough to remove a substantial share of global crude output within days, most plausibly a military event closing a major chokepoint such as the Strait of Hormuz, or a strike on major Gulf production or export infrastructure. Absent that, the price has almost no room left to move before the window closes.
What moves the probability
Distance from current levels
WTI has traded well below $140 throughout August 2026, and reaching that level would require a rally of a scale not seen even during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock. This is the single largest reason the market prices Yes near zero.
Time running out
Only a few trading sessions remain before the 1 September 2026 settlement date. A large price move needs time to build, and the calendar has almost run out for this contract.
Geopolitical shock risk
A sudden supply disruption, such as a military strike on Gulf export infrastructure or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is the main scenario that could push WTI sharply higher in a short window. No such event has been reported as of late August 2026.
OPEC+ supply policy
Current OPEC+ production quotas and spare capacity act as a cushion against price spikes, since the group can in principle raise output if prices threaten to spike. This keeps a lid on upside scenarios barring an actual supply shortfall.
Historical precedent
Even the sharpest oil shocks on record, in 2008 and 2022, stopped short of $140. That history weighs heavily against the market pricing any real chance of a repeat within days.
The case for
- A large, sudden disruption to global oil supply, such as a military strike closing a major export route or chokepoint, would need to occur within the final trading days of August 2026.
- The disruption would have to be severe enough to push WTI beyond levels seen even during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, which itself fell short of $140.
- The move would need to register on a 1-minute futures candle recorded by the Pyth Network feed before trading closes for the month.
The case against
- WTI has traded far below $140 for essentially the entire month of August 2026, leaving no realistic room to close the gap in the days remaining.
- The 2022 supply shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one of the largest oil-price disruptions in recent history, did not reach $140, suggesting the threshold requires an even more extreme event.
- OPEC+ production capacity and current non-OPEC supply levels provide a buffer against rapid price spikes absent an acute physical shortage.
- Consensus across the only venue trading this contract has stayed at 0%, indicating no meaningful expectation of the event occurring.
What to watch
The remaining trading sessions before 1 September 2026 are the only window left for this to resolve Yes. Watch for any sudden geopolitical escalation involving major oil-producing regions, particularly the Middle East or Russian export infrastructure, and any Strait of Hormuz disruption, since these are the only realistic triggers for a rapid spike of this size. Weekly US crude inventory data from the EIA and any unscheduled OPEC+ statements on production could also move sentiment, though a move to $140 within days would still be historically unprecedented.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered