How the contract works
A contract on this market settles at $1 if no qualifying US strike on Iran occurs before the deadline, and at nothing if one does. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that outcome is โ a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance the ceasefire fails, not this market's actual level. The event resolves based on US and Iranian government statements and verified strike reports, with a settlement cutoff at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 3 November 2026. A position in this market can generally be sold before that deadline at whatever price the market is offering at the time, rather than held to settlement.
Yes97%
No3%
Probability
How the price has moved
The current consensus of 97% comes from a single tracked venue, Polymarket, with total volume of $580,992. No day-over-day or week-over-week change figures are available for this market, so it is not possible to characterize a specific move here; what is clear is that the price sits close to the top of its possible range with no competing venue showing a different estimate. A level this high, on a question with a narrow technical trigger and a one-day remaining window, is consistent with a market that sees the specified event as close to settled already, absent any new public signal.
Analysis
Context
This market asks a narrow, short-horizon question: does the current ceasefire between the United States and Iran survive one more day without the US carrying out a qualifying military strike. It does not ask about Iranian actions, about the broader state of relations, or about lower-intensity friction between the two countries. It asks specifically whether US forces conduct a direct air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike against Iranian territory before the resolution deadline.
The resolution rules are deliberately narrow. Intercepted munitions do not count. Naval or artillery fire does not count. Cyber operations do not count. Ground incursions do not count. Even small-scale strikes using first-person-view drones or anti-tank guided missiles are explicitly excluded. Only a clearly attributable US air strike or missile strike directed at Iran would flip the result to No.
Because the window is so short โ one day from today, 2 November 2026, to the 3 November 2026 deadline โ the question functions less as a forecast of US-Iran relations generally and more as a bet on whether a major, visible military decision gets made and executed in the next 24 to 36 hours.
The consensus figure across tracked venues sits at 97%, drawn from a single active venue, Polymarket, carrying $580,992 in trading volume. A figure that high, concentrated in one venue with no competing price to triangulate against, tells a specific story: traders see almost no realistic path to a qualifying strike happening in the remaining window, and there is no second market offering a materially different view to create a spread worth discussing.
The structure of the resolution rules does a lot of the work here. The question is not whether US-Iran tensions ease or escalate in general โ it is whether one very specific category of event occurs: a direct US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike on Iranian territory. Everything else that might plausibly happen in a tense standoff โ intercepted munitions, naval skirmishes, cyber operations, ground incursions, drone or anti-tank strikes โ is explicitly carved out and does not affect the result. That narrows the paths to a No outcome considerably, which is consistent with a price clustered near the top of the range.
No day-over-day or week-over-week price movement figures are available for this market beyond the current consensus, so it is not possible to say from the data here whether the price has been stable at this level or arrived at it recently. What can be said is that a single-venue market with volume under $600,000 and a price near the top of its possible range typically reflects a low-contest question rather than one where information is actively being fought over.
The decision that would move this market rests entirely with the US executive branch and military command โ a strike of the qualifying type would have to be ordered and executed, and would almost certainly be reported immediately given the stakes involved. The absence of any such reporting as of 2 November 2026, combined with the short time remaining, is the practical reason the market sits where it does.
What moves the probability
Narrow strike definition
Only a direct US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike on Iran counts against the ceasefire holding. Interceptions, naval fire, cyber operations, ground incursions, and small drone or anti-tank strikes are all excluded, which removes most plausible lower-level friction as a trigger for a No outcome.
Short remaining window
The market resolves by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 3 November 2026, roughly a day from now. A short window limits how much can realistically change and tends to push markets toward the extremes of their range when no immediate trigger is visible.
Single point of decision
A qualifying strike requires an affirmative US military decision and execution, not an ambiguous escalation. That concentrates the uncertainty in one identifiable actor and one identifiable type of action, making the absence of public signals of an imminent strike meaningful.
Reporting requirement
Resolution depends on verified strike reports and government statements, meaning any qualifying strike would need to be publicly confirmable. The lack of any such confirmation as of 2 November 2026 is itself informative about where the next day is likely to head.
The case for
- No US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike against Iran is publicly reported or ordered before 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 3 November 2026.
- Any US military friction that does occur falls into an excluded category such as interceptions, naval fire, cyber operations, ground incursions, or small drone and anti-tank strikes.
- The ceasefire remains formally in place through the deadline with no announced change in US strike policy toward Iran.
The case against
- The United States orders and carries out a qualifying air or missile strike directly impacting Iranian territory before the 3 November 2026 deadline.
- A rapid escalation in the final day of the window produces a confirmable strike that is reported by government statements or verified strike reports before the cutoff.
What to watch
The only development that matters for this market between now and the 3 November 2026 deadline is a US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran, confirmed through government statements or verified strike reporting. Any other form of military activity โ interceptions, naval or artillery exchanges, cyber incidents, ground incursions, or small drone and anti-tank strikes โ does not affect the resolution regardless of how it is covered in the news. The settlement cutoff is 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 3 November 2026.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee