How the contract works
A contract on this market settles at $1 if Dvalishvili is officially declared the winner of the bout, and at nothing if Yan wins, or if the fight is declared a draw, no contest, or otherwise fails to produce a winner by the rules below. The price at any moment is simply the market's current estimate of how likely that $1 outcome is โ a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees that outcome happening roughly three times in ten, not that anyone involved expects it with certainty. Settlement is tied to the official UFC result from the 24 October 2026 card; a position in this market can typically be sold before that result is final, at whatever price the market is offering at the time.
Yes43%
No57%
Probability
How the price has moved
The only figure available for this market is the current consensus of 43% on Polymarket, built on $375,884 in volume. There is no second venue to compare it against, so no cross-market spread can be assessed, and no day-over-day or week-over-week move is reported here to characterize how the market has shifted since opening. What the single data point shows is a market pricing the rematch close to even with a lean against Dvalishvili, consistent with a fight widely viewed as competitive rather than one-sided.
Analysis
Context
Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan are two of the most accomplished bantamweight fighters of the last five years. Dvalishvili built his reputation on relentless wrestling pressure and historic output, winning the UFC bantamweight title from Sean O'Malley in August 2024 and defending it since. Yan, a former undisputed champion who held the belt in 2020 and 2021, is known for precise boxing, leg kicks and finishing power, and has remained a top contender through several title-eliminator wins.
The two have already fought once. Dvalishvili beat Yan by split decision in March 2023 in a bout many observers scored differently depending on how they weighed Dvalishvili's volume and control time against Yan's cleaner striking. That history is the central fact shaping how this UFC 333 meeting is being priced: it is a rematch between fighters who already know exactly what the other brings, rather than a fight between unknown quantities.
The bout is scheduled for 24 October 2026 as part of the UFC 333 main card. Settlement follows the official UFC result, posted on ufc.com, with the market resolving to whichever fighter is declared the winner.
The consensus figure here, 43%, comes from a single tracked venue, Polymarket, carrying $375,884 in trading volume. That matters for how to read the number: without a second venue to compare against, there is no cross-market spread to check for disagreement, and the price should be read as one market's current estimate rather than a convergence point across several independent books. The volume figure is respectable for a non-championship combat-sports contract โ enough to suggest real interest beyond a handful of participants โ but it is modest next to markets built around elections or Fed decisions, so the price can move more on a single large position than a deeply liquid market would.
The fight-specific case for where the number sits starts with history. Dvalishvili won the first meeting by split decision in March 2023, a result that depended heavily on how judges weighted his output and top control against Yan's cleaner, harder striking. Split decisions by definition mean at least one judge saw the fight the other way, and rematches that follow split decisions are notoriously hard to price cleanly: the previous loser has had real time to make targeted adjustments โ tightened takedown defense, better footwork to avoid the clinch โ while the previous winner has to prove the formula still works against a fighter who has already seen it up close.
Dvalishvili's style is built on volume and pace: historic numbers of significant strikes and takedown attempts across five-round fights, with a cardio profile that has let him keep that pace into the championship rounds. Yan's style is built on efficiency and power โ fewer strikes landed, but each one carrying more weight, plus a willingness to counter rather than simply absorb pressure. A market pricing this near even, with a slight lean toward Yan, is consistent with a view that Yan's adjustments since 2023 and his finishing ability carry at least as much weight as Dvalishvili's pace and prior win.
Without a second venue or a published price-history series for this specific contract, it isn't possible to characterize how much the number has moved over the past day or week from the data available here. What can be said is that a reading in the low-to-mid 40s is not a market expressing confidence in either direction โ it is a market treating the rematch as genuinely competitive, which fits a fight between two fighters who have already beaten each other's expectations once.
What moves the probability
The first fight's split decision
Dvalishvili won the March 2023 meeting by split decision, meaning the judges were not unanimous on who did more. That kind of result tends to compress a market toward even odds in a rematch, because it signals genuine closeness rather than one fighter clearly outclassing the other.
Style matchup: volume vs power
Dvalishvili's game relies on constant pressure, high strike volume and wrestling control across five rounds. Yan relies on precision, counters and finishing power. Markets pricing this near 50-50 reflect genuine uncertainty over whether volume or power wins out over 25 minutes.
Adjustments since the first fight
Yan has had more than three years to study the specific problems Dvalishvili's pace created in their first meeting, including his takedown entries and grappling exchanges. Any visible improvement in his takedown defense during fight week or early rounds would be a signal pushing the price further toward Yan.
Cardio and pace over five rounds
Dvalishvili's conditioning has historically let him maintain output deep into fights, which matters more in a five-round main-card bout than a three-rounder. If the fight reaches the championship rounds still competitive, Dvalishvili's pace advantage becomes a larger factor, which would tend to support a higher price for him.
Single-venue pricing
With only Polymarket tracked and $375,884 in volume, the price can shift more sharply on a single sizable position than it would in a deeper, multi-venue market. That makes short-term price moves less informative about a genuine change in the fight's expected outcome.
The case for
- Dvalishvili already beat Yan once, by split decision in March 2023, establishing a precedent for his pace and control working against this specific opponent.
- If Dvalishvili maintains his characteristic volume and takedown attempts across five rounds, the fight is likely to again come down to a competitive decision where his activity has previously been rewarded.
- A repeat of his championship-rounds conditioning advantage would matter more in a five-round bout than it did in any shorter fight either man has had.
- Judges scoring aggression and control time favorably, as in the first meeting, would again tilt a close decision in Dvalishvili's favor.
The case against
- Petr Yan has had more than three years since the first fight to specifically address the grappling and pace problems Dvalishvili presented, and improved takedown defense would blunt Dvalishvili's central weapon.
- Yan's cleaner, harder striking carries finishing potential that a decision-based style does not, and a single significant counter could end the fight regardless of overall volume.
- The first fight was a split decision, meaning at least one judge already saw Yan as the clear winner, so the outcome has never been unambiguous.
- Championship-rounds fatigue affects both fighters, not just the one applying pressure, and Yan's efficiency could matter more as the pace slows in later rounds.
What to watch
The fight itself takes place on 24 October 2026 as part of the UFC 333 card, with the official result expected the same night in the United States and settlement following shortly after via ufc.com. Fight week carries its own signals worth watching: official weigh-ins, any late changes to the card, and pre-fight media where either fighter discusses specific adjustments since the 2023 meeting. Once the bout starts, round-by-round control time and significant strikes landed will likely matter most to how closely scorecards track the first fight's split outcome.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
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