How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if the House passes one or more articles of impeachment against Trump by a simple majority vote between 24 July 2025 and 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It settles at nothing if no such vote passes in that window. A Senate trial, conviction, or removal is not required for a Yes outcome; only a House floor vote counts. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers collectively think the chance of that vote happening is โ a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would imply traders see roughly three-in-ten odds, not this market's actual price. Positions in this contract can typically be sold before the 31 December 2026 settlement date at whatever price the market has moved to by then.
Yes3%
No97%
Probability
How the price has moved
The consensus price has held near 3% with over $1.1 million in volume on Polymarket, indicating a market that formed an early view and has not had reason to revisit it substantially. A flat line at a low level like this reflects settled expectations rather than active uncertainty: traders are not debating whether impeachment happens, they are pricing in the structural fact that the House majority controls the floor and has repeatedly declined to advance articles. The move follows no single publicly reported trigger; it is the cumulative effect of repeated tabled votes rather than one event.
Analysis
Context
Donald Trump was impeached twice during his first term, in December 2019 and January 2021, both times by a House controlled by Democrats. This question concerns his second term. The 119th Congress, seated in January 2025, is controlled by Republicans, with Speaker Mike Johnson setting the floor schedule. Since mid-2025, individual Democratic members, including Rep. Al Green, have introduced privileged resolutions containing articles of impeachment over various grievances, forcing votes that Johnson's majority and most Republicans have voted to table rather than debate.
The consensus price across tracked venues sits at 3%, with $1,103,611 in total volume concentrated on Polymarket. A price this low, with meaningful volume behind it, tells a specific story: enough capital has traded this contract to generate a stable signal, and that signal says the market views impeachment passing the House as close to a settled no rather than a live contest. This is not a thin, illiquid market where a small trade could move the price sharply; over a million dollars has changed hands at prices clustered near the bottom of the range.
The structural reason is straightforward. Impeachment requires only a simple majority in the House โ 218 votes if all seats are filled โ but the chamber has been under Republican control since January 2025, and that majority controls which resolutions reach the floor for a real vote rather than a procedural tabling motion. Rep. Al Green and other Democrats have repeatedly forced privileged resolutions to the floor during 2025, a maneuver that bypasses leadership and guarantees a vote within two legislative days. Each time, the resolution has been tabled by a vote that included most Republicans and, notably, some Democrats as well, rather than advancing to a vote on the merits of the articles themselves.
The midterm elections on 3 November 2026 are the one scheduled event that could alter the composition of the House, but any new majority from that election would not be seated until the 119th Congress ends and the 120th convenes in January 2027 โ after this question's 31 December 2026 deadline. That timing detail matters: even a Democratic sweep in the midterms cannot produce a new impeachment-friendly majority before this market settles, because the sitting Congress, not the incoming one, is the one that votes.
For Yes to happen, something would have to shift the calculus inside the current Republican conference itself โ a scandal, investigation finding, or political event severe enough to flip a critical mass of GOP votes before the end of 2026. Nothing of that scale has been reported as of early November 2026, which is consistent with a price that has stayed low rather than spiking on any particular news cycle.
What moves the probability
Republican House majority
The 119th Congress, seated January 2025, is controlled by Republicans through the entirety of this question's window. Any impeachment vote needs a simple majority, and the majority party controls which measures reach a real floor vote rather than a tabling motion. This is the single largest force keeping the probability low.
Pattern of tabled resolutions
Privileged impeachment resolutions forced to the floor in 2025, including by Rep. Al Green, have been voted down or tabled with bipartisan support rather than advanced to debate. Each repetition of that pattern reinforces the market's read that the current House has no appetite to proceed.
Midterm timing mismatch
The 3 November 2026 midterm elections could change House control, but the new Congress does not convene until January 2027, after this question's 31 December 2026 deadline. A midterm result favorable to impeachment supporters therefore cannot affect this specific market.
Absence of a triggering scandal
A sudden, severe political event could in principle flip enough Republican votes to pass articles. No such event has moved this price meaningfully as of early November 2026, which is itself informative about how the market is reading the current political environment.
The case for
- A sufficiently damaging scandal or investigative finding before 31 December 2026 could persuade a critical mass of House Republicans to vote for articles.
- Democratic members can continue to force privileged resolutions to the floor at will, keeping repeated opportunities for a vote alive through the deadline.
- A House discharge petition, if it gathered 218 signatures including some Republicans, could bypass leadership entirely and bring articles to a vote on the merits.
The case against
- Republicans hold the House majority for the entire window this question covers, and Speaker Johnson controls the floor schedule.
- Every privileged impeachment resolution forced to a vote in 2025 was tabled, including with some Democratic votes, rather than advanced.
- The midterm elections on 3 November 2026 cannot change House control before the 31 December 2026 deadline, since the new Congress is not seated until January 2027.
- No reported scandal or investigation as of early November 2026 appears close to the scale needed to flip the dozens of Republican votes required.
What to watch
Any new privileged impeachment resolution forced to the floor by a House Democrat remains the most direct way this price could move, since each forces an actual recorded vote. Watch for signs of Republican defections in any such vote, since a narrow margin would signal weakening party discipline even in defeat. The 3 November 2026 midterm results matter for the next Congress but not for this market, since the new House does not convene until after the 31 December 2026 deadline. Any major investigative or scandal-driven news involving the administration between now and year-end would be the kind of event capable of shifting Republican votes quickly.
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