How the contract works
A contract on this market settles at $1 if Team Vision is declared champion of The International 2026, and at nothing if any other team wins or the result is not determined in time. The price at any moment is simply the market's current estimate of that chance โ a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply traders see roughly a three-in-ten chance of that outcome, not a guarantee either way. The market settles based on the official result recorded on Dotabuff, backed by a consensus of credible esports reporting if needed, and if no champion is confirmed by 6 September 2026 23:59 ET the market resolves to 'Other', which counts as No for this question. A position taken now can typically be sold before that settlement date, at whatever price the market has moved to by then.
Yes37%
No63%
Probability
How the price has moved
The only figure available is the current consensus of 35%, drawn from a single tracked venue, Polymarket, with $68,070 in volume. No prior-day or prior-week price history has been provided, so nothing reliable can be said about how the market arrived at this level or whether it has been rising, falling, or flat. What the figure itself communicates is a mid-tournament market that rates Team Vision as a live contender but assigns the majority of the probability, in aggregate, to the rest of the field.
Analysis
Context
The International is Dota 2's marquee annual tournament, drawing the sport's strongest rosters into a group stage followed by a single-elimination or double-elimination playoff bracket that ends in a grand final. TI2026 runs from 13 to 23 August 2026. Team Vision is one of the teams competing for the title, and this market asks whether that team specifically lifts the trophy at the end of the event.
As of 15 August 2026, the tournament is mid-run: some group or early bracket matches have likely concluded, with the bulk of the playoff bracket and the grand final still ahead. The champion will not be known until the final best-of series concludes on or near 23 August 2026.
The consensus figure across tracked venues is 35%, built entirely on Polymarket data with $68,070 in trading volume. That is a single-venue reading โ there is no second platform to cross-check it against, so the number reflects the judgment of whoever has traded that one market rather than a broader average. A volume of $68,070 is modest for a tournament-length market, which means the price can shift meaningfully on a handful of large positions rather than requiring a broad shift in sentiment.
No historical price series โ opening level, prior-day move, prior-week move โ has been supplied here, so nothing can honestly be said about how this 35% was reached or whether it has been stable. What can be said is that a mid-tournament reading of 35% for a single team, out of a bracket that typically includes eight or more surviving squads once group stage concludes, implies the market sees Team Vision as a stronger-than-average survivor but still facing a majority chance of elimination or defeat in a later series.
The determining mechanism is straightforward: Dotabuff records match and series results as they happen, and the champion is whoever wins the final best-of series of the playoff bracket. Every series Team Vision plays between 15 August and the grand final on or around 23 August will move this number, sharply, because tournament bracket markets are binary at each elimination point โ a loss in a decisive series either ends the run outright or pushes the team into a must-win lower-bracket path, either of which reprices the outcome immediately.
What moves the probability
Remaining bracket path
Every best-of series Team Vision still has to play before 23 August 2026 is a discrete elimination risk. A loss in a decisive game pushes the price down sharply; consecutive wins push it up. This is the single largest source of movement between now and the grand final.
Strength of the surviving field
The other teams still alive in the bracket set the ceiling on Team Vision's chances. If stronger-seeded teams have already been eliminated, that favors Team Vision indirectly; if the historically dominant rosters remain, it caps upside.
Best-of-3 versus best-of-5 variance
Playoff series length affects how much a single off-game can swing a set. Shorter series introduce more variance, which can move a market's confidence even absent a change in underlying team strength.
Thin trading volume
With $68,070 traded on a single venue, the price is more sensitive to individual large positions than a deeply traded market would be. Readers should weigh the 35% figure knowing it rests on a comparatively small base.
The 6 September fallback deadline
If the tournament outcome is somehow not confirmed by 6 September 2026 23:59 ET, the market resolves to 'Other', which is a No for Team Vision regardless of the true sporting result. This is a low-probability but real tail risk given TI has historically finished on schedule.
The case for
- Team Vision must win every remaining best-of series in the playoff bracket through to the grand final.
- The grand final itself must be won outright, typically in a best-of-five format, on or around 23 August 2026.
- Dotabuff's official record of that result, or a clear consensus of credible esports reporting, must confirm Team Vision as champion before the 6 September 2026 23:59 ET deadline.
- No disqualification, forfeit, or unresolved dispute over the result can cloud the official outcome.
The case against
- Team Vision only needs to lose one decisive series against any remaining opponent to be eliminated from title contention.
- The 35% consensus implies the market currently sees other teams, collectively, as more likely to win than Team Vision is.
- A double-elimination format means even a strong start does not guarantee a path to the grand final if a lower-bracket run proves too long.
- If the tournament schedule slips and no champion is confirmed by 6 September 2026, the market resolves to 'Other', a No outcome regardless of Team Vision's in-game form.
What to watch
The remaining playoff matches through 23 August 2026 are what will move this price, particularly any decisive series involving Team Vision. The grand final result, expected on or near 23 August 2026, is the event that settles the market outright. After that, the only remaining date of note is 6 September 2026 23:59 ET, the deadline after which an unresolved result defaults to 'Other'. Dotabuff's official match and series records are the primary source to track as results land.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
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