How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if the Senate holds a qualifying recorded vote inside the window, and at nothing if it does not. The price between those two points is simply what buyers and sellers currently agree the chance is: a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would mean the market thinks the event happens roughly three times in ten. Settlement here is on 8 August 2026, judged against the Congressional Record for the legislative day ending 11:59:59 PM ET on 7 August 2026, and only a roll call or yea-and-nay vote counts โ voice votes, unanimous consent, committee votes and amendment votes do not. A position does not have to be held to settlement; it can normally be sold back into the market beforehand at whatever the price is at that moment.
Yes7%
No93%
Probability
How the price has moved
The series opened at 52% on 29 July 2026 and held a narrow 45%โ56% band across 29 recorded observations โ a market that genuinely did not know, with a week of possible floor time still on the calendar. The consensus now sits at 5%, far below that entire range, while the recorded 24-hour and 7-day changes both read zero at the observation points. In plain terms, the data does not pin the fall to a single session or a single headline; it shows a question that was contested for most of its life and is now treated as effectively answered. That is the normal life cycle of a deadline contract: the probability tracks the underlying uncertainty until the calendar removes it, then converges. The residual few percentage points are not a forecast of a vote so much as the price of the small chance that something appears on the floor schedule in the final hours.
Analysis
Context
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, is the US crypto industry's long-awaited market structure bill. It would divide oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, define when a token is a security and when it is a commodity, and create a registration path for exchanges and intermediaries that currently operate under enforcement-driven rules rather than written ones.
The House of Representatives passed the bill as H.R. 3633 on 17 July 2025, by 294 votes to 134, with substantial Democratic support. That week also produced the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, which was signed into law the following day. Market structure was always the harder half: it touches two committees in the Senate โ Banking, which handles securities, and Agriculture, which handles the CFTC โ and it needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster, which means a bloc of Democratic senators has to be brought along on disclosure, custody and conflict-of-interest provisions.
This market asks a narrow procedural question, not a policy one. It does not ask whether the bill becomes law, or whether the Senate likes it. It asks whether senators are recorded, by name, voting on the bill or on any motion attached to it โ a motion to proceed, cloture, or final passage โ before the clock runs out at the end of 7 August 2026.
The consensus across venues sits at 5%, and the shape of that number matters more than the level. This is a deadline question with hours left on it. Senate floor votes are not spontaneous events: they are noticed through the majority leader's schedule, they follow filed cloture motions with intervening days, and they appear on the daily calendar before they happen. When a market on "will a specific chamber take a specific recorded vote by tonight" prices in the low single digits, it is saying that the observable machinery for producing such a vote is not visible.
The history explains how the market got there. The first recorded observation, on 29 July 2026, put the probability at 52% โ an even split, which is what a market looks like when there is still a plausible week of floor time and no confirmed schedule. Across 29 recorded observations the probability ranged between 45% and 56%, meaning the question stayed genuinely contested for most of its life. The current consensus sits well below that entire band. The recorded series shows no change in the last 24 hours and none over the last seven days at the observation points, so the data does not attribute the collapse to one identifiable session; what it does show is that the market has moved from treating this as a coin flip to treating it as close to settled.
The venue spread is the most interesting live detail. Kalshi prices it at 5%, Polymarket at 19% โ a gap of 14.5 percentage points on a binary that is about to expire. Kalshi carries $883,935 of the $912,957 traded across venues, roughly 97% of the total, and settles explicitly against the Congressional Record. Gaps of this size on near-expiry contracts usually reflect thinner participation on one side rather than a real disagreement about the facts, and they can also reflect small differences in how each venue words the qualifying vote. Anyone reading the two numbers should weight them by where the money actually is.
On the substance, the constraints are structural rather than political. The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, which means Republican unity is not enough. Jurisdiction is split between Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture, because the bill hands the CFTC a large new supervisory role over spot digital asset markets, and both committees have to be satisfied before leadership commits floor time. Early August is also when the Senate historically breaks for its state work period, which compresses the calendar for anything not already teed up. Against that, the House delivered its half of the package by 294 votes to 134 more than a year ago, and the pressure from that lopsided margin has not gone away โ which is why the market was near even a week ago rather than near zero.
What the price does not say is that the bill is dead. It says only that this particular procedural box will very probably not be ticked by tonight. A market structure vote later in 2026 is a separate question with a separate answer.
What moves the probability
The clock
The window closes at 11:59:59 PM ET on 7 August 2026. Senate recorded votes require prior notice on the floor schedule, and cloture motions ripen after intervening days. With no scheduled action visible, time alone accounts for most of the move from the low-50s to the low single digits.
The 60-vote threshold
Any motion to proceed can be filibustered, so leadership rarely burns floor time on a bill without a whip count showing 60. Democratic votes on custody, disclosure and conflict-of-interest language have been the sticking point since the House passed its version. Until that count exists, the incentive is to delay rather than to force a failed cloture vote โ which pushes this probability down.
Split committee jurisdiction
Banking handles the SEC side, Agriculture handles the CFTC side, and the bill materially expands CFTC authority over spot markets. Two committees signing off is slower than one, and it gives either chair a reason to hold the text. This is a persistent drag on any near-term floor date.
House momentum
H.R. 3633 cleared the House 294โ134 on 17 July 2025 with sizeable bipartisan support, and the GENIUS Act became law the next day. That precedent is the main reason the market opened near even rather than low, and it is the reason a Senate vehicle remains live even if it misses this deadline. It pushes the longer-term probability up but does nothing for tonight.
Venue liquidity gap
Kalshi holds about 97% of the $912,957 traded and prices the question at 5%; Polymarket, with roughly $29,000, prices it at 19%. The 14.5-point spread is a liquidity and wording artefact more than a genuine split in expectations, and it will close mechanically at settlement.
The case for
- The Senate majority leader can file cloture or move to proceed on short notice, and a leadership decision to force a recorded vote before the August break would resolve this immediately.
- A Senate substitute for H.R. 3633 explicitly counts under the rules, so the vote does not have to be on the House text โ any recorded motion on a replacement vehicle qualifies.
- Leadership sometimes stages a losing procedural vote deliberately, to put senators on the record before a recess and set up negotiations for the autumn; that scenario needs no agreement on the underlying bill at all.
The case against
- No recorded Senate vote on the CLARITY Act or a substitute has been scheduled in the hours remaining before the 7 August 2026 cut-off, and Senate floor votes are almost never unannounced.
- The 60-vote cloture threshold means leadership has little reason to call a vote it expects to lose while committee negotiations between Banking and Agriculture are unresolved.
- Voice votes, unanimous consent agreements, committee action and amendment votes are all explicitly excluded, so several plausible forms of Senate activity tonight would still resolve this No.
- The probability has already fallen out of the 45%โ56% band it held across 29 recorded observations, which is what markets do when a deadline passes the point of practical reversal.
What to watch
The only thing that matters before settlement is the Senate floor schedule for 7 August 2026 โ specifically whether the majority leader files cloture or moves to proceed on H.R. 3633 or a Senate substitute, and whether any such motion produces a yea-and-nay vote before 11:59:59 PM ET. The Congressional Record for that legislative day is the settlement document. Beyond this contract, the dates that matter for the bill itself are the Senate's return from the August state work period, any joint text released by the Banking and Agriculture committees, and whether market structure is attached to a larger must-pass vehicle in the autumn.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
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