How the contract works
This contract settles at $1 if Jessica Pegula advances past Anisimova in their scheduled Cincinnati Open match, and at nothing if Anisimova advances instead. The price at any moment is simply the going rate buyers and sellers agree reflects the chance of a Pegula win โ a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would mean the market sees roughly three-in-ten odds of that outcome, not this match specifically. The result is settled against the official WTA Tour scores by 28 August 2026, with retirements, defaults or disqualifications resolving to whichever player advances. A position in this contract can typically be sold before that settlement date at whatever price the market is quoting at the time.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
The only figure available for this contract is its current reading, a consensus of 0% for a Pegula win concentrated entirely on Polymarket, where $1,923,431 has traded. No intraday or multi-day history was supplied for this specific match, so nothing can honestly be said about how it moved to get here beyond noting that the level itself, combined with that volume, reads as a market that has already converged on an outcome rather than one still debating it. Any claim about a specific triggering event for this price would not be supported by the data available, so none is made here.
Analysis
Context
The Cincinnati Open is a WTA 1000 hard-court tournament played in Mason, Ohio, one of the last big stops before the US Open. Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova are both American professionals on tour, which makes this an all-American second-round or early-round matchup that gets picked up by US sports outlets regardless of how the broader draw shakes out. The match was originally scheduled for 21 August 2026, the same date this page reflects, so by the time most readers see this, the match may already be underway or finished on court, even if the result has not yet been fully confirmed through official channels.
The headline figure here is a consensus of 0% for a Pegula win, all of it concentrated on one venue, Polymarket, which has carried $1,923,431 in trading volume on this single match. That is a large sum for a contract that is priced at the extreme end of the scale, and the combination tells a clear story: this is not a market still working out a close contest, it is a market that has already converged on an answer and is trading confirmation rather than uncertainty. When a contract sits this near the boundary with real money behind it, it usually reflects something concrete rather than sentiment โ a match already decided, a lopsided scoreline in progress, or a withdrawal that has been reported before this page synced its data.
Because only one venue lists this contract, there is no cross-market spread to check the price against, which is itself informative: it means whatever conviction exists here has not yet been arbitraged against a second source, and the number should be read as one platform's aggregated view rather than a market consensus in the fuller sense used for more heavily quoted events. There is also no multi-day price history supplied for this specific match beyond the current reading, so this analysis should not claim a trend that the data does not show โ what can be said honestly is that the contract is currently priced as close to certain against Pegula, full stop.
The resolution rules matter here too. The settlement text explicitly covers retirements, defaults and walkovers, resolving them to whoever advances rather than voiding the contract, except in the case of a full cancellation or a delay beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50-50 split. That structure means a lopsided price near zero is consistent with several distinct real-world scenarios โ a straight loss, a mid-match retirement, or a default โ and the market does not need to distinguish between them to price the contract this way, since all but full cancellation point to the same settlement outcome.
What moves the probability
Live match status
If the match on 21 August 2026 has progressed to a decisive score or concluded, the WTA scores page becomes the direct input traders are pricing against. This pushes the contract toward whichever extreme matches the reported or in-progress result, which is consistent with a reading this close to zero.
Single-venue pricing
Only Polymarket quotes this contract, so there is no second market to check the number against or to smooth out a sharp move. That makes the price more sensitive to whatever the latest information is, without the moderating effect a second liquid venue would provide.
Retirement and default rules
The settlement terms resolve retirements, defaults and disqualifications to whoever advances, not to a void. That means any early exit by either player, not just a completed three-set match, can drive the price to an extreme just as decisively as a straight loss would.
Volume behind the price
Nearly $1.9 million has traded on this single match contract, which is a meaningful amount for an early-round tour match. That volume suggests the pricing reflects active positioning on known information rather than a thin, easily-moved quote.
The case for
- Pegula would need to win her originally scheduled 21 August 2026 match against Anisimova outright, as recorded on the WTA's official scores page.
- If the match had not started or was still live when this page was generated, a reversal in Pegula's favor before the 28 August 2026 settlement date would still resolve the contract to her.
- A default or disqualification against Anisimova, rather than Pegula, would also resolve the contract in Pegula's favor under the stated rules.
The case against
- The consensus price sits at the extreme low end for a Pegula win, and $1,923,431 in volume behind that price suggests traders are responding to a result or in-match situation that already strongly favors Anisimova.
- A Pegula retirement, default, or straight-sets loss on 21 August 2026 would resolve the contract to Anisimova under the stated settlement rules.
- With only one venue quoting the contract and no second price to check it against, there is no market disagreement pulling the price away from its current extreme.
What to watch
The one date that matters is the match itself, originally scheduled for 21 August 2026, with the official record kept on the WTA Tour's scores page. The contract's formal settlement deadline is 28 August 2026, and the rules specify that a delay beyond seven days without a completed result reverts the contract to a 50-50 split rather than leaving it open indefinitely. Any reported retirement, default or disqualification during the match would also resolve it under those same rules, so the scores page is the single source worth checking directly.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
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