World
Will Nicolás Maduro still be Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026?
chance the market gives this event — not your chance of being right
- Yes — The event happens
- 81%
- No — The event does not happen
- 19%
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In short
The market currently treats Maduro's survival in office through the end of 2026 as the more likely outcome, though pricing has been unusually unstable. The main reason he is still favored is that he retains command of Venezuela's military and security apparatus despite sustained US sanctions and naval deployments; a shift would most likely come from a fracture inside that apparatus or direct US military action rather than diplomatic pressure alone.
How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if Maduro is still officially Venezuela's head of state at 10:00 AM ET on 31 December 2026, and at nothing if he has been removed, replaced, or otherwise no longer holds the position by then. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers collectively think the chance of that outcome is; a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance he is still in office at that date, not a forecast of what should happen. Settlement is based on reporting from the Associated Press, Reuters and Bloomberg, or official Venezuelan government sources, and a position can generally be sold before 31 December 2026 at whatever price the market is quoting at that time.
Yes81%
No19%
Probability
How the price has moved
The market opened on 29 July 2026 at 84% and, across 344 recorded observations since, has ranged from as low as 19% to as high as 100% before settling at a current consensus of 80%. The last 24 hours alone saw a move of +14.2 percentage points, a large swing for a question with a settlement date still five months away. That range points to a market reacting to unverified or disputed reports about Maduro's status rather than to a single confirmed event, and no specific publicly reported trigger for the swing can be confirmed here.
Context
Nicolás Maduro has governed Venezuela since 2013 and claimed a third term after the disputed July 2024 presidential election, in which the opposition, led by María Corina Machado and candidate Edmundo González, said its own vote tallies showed a González win. Venezuela's National Electoral Council, widely seen as controlled by the ruling party, declared Maduro the winner, and he was inaugurated in January 2025. González later left the country for exile in Spain, while Machado has remained inside Venezuela.
Since returning to office in January 2025, the Trump administration has escalated pressure on Maduro's government, expanding sanctions and increasing US military presence in the Caribbean, including actions against vessels it links to drug trafficking networks it associates with Venezuelan officials. This question asks whether that pressure, or any other force, removes Maduro from the head-of-state role before the end of 2026, a full year after his inauguration for a term that formally runs to 2031.
Analysis
The market for this question is very new and very volatile. It was first recorded on 29 July 2026 at 84%, and in the roughly 344 price observations logged since then, the probability has ranged all the way from 19% to 100% before settling near its current consensus of 80%. A swing of that size within a single day of trading is not typical of a stable, well-understood political outcome; it points to a fast-moving news cycle in which traders were pricing in and then pricing out some development affecting Maduro's hold on power, though no single publicly reported trigger for the swing is confirmed here. The move in the last 24 hours alone was +14.2 percentage points, which is large enough to suggest active repricing rather than gradual drift.
What is driving the underlying question is a standoff between two forces that have not changed materially since Maduro's January 2025 inauguration: US pressure and Maduro's domestic control. The Trump administration has combined sanctions with a visible military buildup in the Caribbean and enforcement actions against vessels it links to Venezuelan-connected trafficking networks, signaling a policy of sustained coercion rather than negotiation. Against that, Maduro has so far kept the loyalty of Venezuela's senior military command and internal security services, which is the mechanism that has kept him in office through previous crises, including the aftermath of the disputed 2024 election when opposition-reported vote tallies were not enough to dislodge him.
The total volume traded on this question, $781,606, is concentrated in a market that opened only a day before this page was written, which is consistent with a story that just became newly urgent rather than one that has been priced for months. That newness, combined with the wide range already seen, means the current 80% consensus should be read as a snapshot of a fast-changing situation rather than a settled view.
What moves the probability
US military posture
Trump administration deployments in the Caribbean and actions against vessels linked to Venezuelan trafficking networks raise the visible cost of Maduro remaining in office. This pushes the probability of removal upward the longer the deployments continue or escalate, though deployments alone have not forced a change so far.
Loyalty of the armed forces
Maduro's ability to stay in power has depended on retaining the backing of senior military and security officials rather than on electoral legitimacy. Any sign of a fracture in that command structure would be the single fastest route to a No outcome.
Sanctions and economic pressure
Expanded US sanctions since January 2025 squeeze the revenue the government uses to sustain patronage networks that keep officials loyal. This works slowly and pushes toward removal over months, not days.
Opposition fragmentation and exile
With Edmundo González in exile in Spain and María Corina Machado operating inside Venezuela under restriction, the opposition lacks a single, internationally recognized figure positioned to take office quickly. This reduces the chance of an orderly transition even if Maduro's position weakens.
Volatility itself
The market's swing from 19% to 100% in its first day of trading shows how sensitive this price is to unverified reports. Sharp reversals are likely to keep recurring as claims about Maduro's status circulate before being confirmed or denied by AP, Reuters or Bloomberg.
The case for
- Maduro has retained command of Venezuela's military and internal security services since the disputed 2024 election, the mechanism that has kept him in office through prior pressure.
- The US has so far relied on sanctions and naval deployments rather than direct intervention against the government itself.
- The opposition remains split between an exiled candidate, Edmundo González, and a restricted domestic figure, María Corina Machado, without a clear path to assume office even if Maduro's position weakens.
- His current term, from the January 2025 inauguration, formally runs to 2031, giving him a legal claim to the position through 2026 regardless of its disputed origin.
The case against
- Sustained US sanctions and an expanding Caribbean military presence under the Trump administration raise the cost of Maduro's continued rule and increase the odds of a forced exit or negotiated departure before 31 December 2026.
- The market's own price history, swinging as high as 100% and as low as 19% within its first day of trading, shows traders have already treated a rapid removal as plausible under some scenario, even if unconfirmed.
- Economic pressure from sanctions can erode the loyalty of the security officials Maduro depends on over the course of a year, not just in a single event.
- Any fracture inside the military command, even a partial one, has historically been the fastest route to changes in the region's authoritarian governments.
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Venues (1)
- KalshiRecommendedYes81%0.81
- Volume (24h)
- US$603.0
- Fee
- 1.08%
Probability
- Nicolás Maduro81%
- Delcy Rodríguez14%
- Diosdado Cabello Rondón5%
- María Corina Machado4%
- Marco Rubio2%
- Edmundo González2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Richard Grenell1%
- Pete Hegseth1%
- Dan Caine0%
- Evan Pettus0%
- Frank Donovan0%
Resolution rules
This resolves Yes if Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at 10:00 AM ET on 31 December 2026, based on reporting from the Associated Press, Reuters, or Bloomberg, or on official Venezuelan government sources. It resolves No if he has been removed, replaced, or otherwise does not hold the position at that time. Kalshi is the venue currently trading this question, and it references the same set of major news agencies and official sources for settlement.
Calculation methodology →Local context
For a US and allied audience, Maduro's political survival is a direct test of the Trump administration's Venezuela policy, tying together sanctions enforcement, military deployments in the Caribbean and broader US posture toward Latin America. Venezuela also holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, so any resolution of this standoff, sudden or gradual, carries implications for global oil supply and, by extension, fuel prices for US, UK, Canadian and Australian consumers.
What to watch
Between now and 31 December 2026, the key things to watch are further US military or enforcement actions in the Caribbean, any change in sanctions policy from the Trump administration, and reporting from AP, Reuters or Bloomberg on the loyalty of Venezuela's senior military command. Any statement from Maduro's government or from opposition figures María Corina Machado or Edmundo González claiming a change in control of the presidency would also move the price quickly, as would confirmation or denial of the reports that appear to have driven the market's swing in its first days of trading.
Common questions
- What exactly settles this question and when?
- It settles based on whether Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of Venezuela's head of state at 10:00 AM ET on 31 December 2026, using reporting from the Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, or official Venezuelan government sources. If those sources confirm he still holds the role at that time, it resolves Yes; if he has been removed or replaced, it resolves No.
- What does the current market price actually mean?
- The price reflects what traders collectively estimate the chance to be, based on all currently available information. It is not a prediction from any single analyst or institution, and it can and does move as new reports emerge, as shown by the swings already recorded in this market's short history.
- What happens if Maduro's status becomes ambiguous or disputed near the deadline?
- The settlement rules point to major news agencies and official government sources as the reference. If those sources give conflicting accounts near 31 December 2026, resolution would likely wait for clearer confirmation from AP, Reuters or Bloomberg, which is the standard the rules specify.
- Why has the price swung so much since the market opened?
- In its first day of trading, the price ranged from 19% to 100% and moved 14.2 percentage points in the most recent 24 hours. That level of movement suggests traders were reacting to fast-moving or unconfirmed reports about Maduro's position, though the specific reports behind each swing are not confirmed here.
- How does US policy affect this question?
- The Trump administration has combined expanded sanctions with an increased military presence in the Caribbean, including actions against vessels linked to Venezuelan trafficking networks, since taking office in January 2025. That pressure is a central force behind the case that Maduro could be removed or forced out before the end of 2026, though it has not done so through mid-2026.
- What was the outcome of Venezuela's 2024 election dispute?
- Maduro was declared the winner by Venezuela's National Electoral Council after the July 2024 vote, but the opposition, led by María Corina Machado and candidate Edmundo González, said its own tallies showed González had won. Maduro was inaugurated in January 2025 for a term that formally runs to 2031, while González went into exile in Spain.
Related events
81%
Yes / No