Probability
How the price has moved
The contract has only been tracked since 29 July 2026, when it opened at 62%. Over its first day it traded in a range of 57% to 72%, reflecting a market still finding its footing on a short-dated, high-stakes question. In the most recent 24 hours it moved to 74%, an 8-percentage-point rise that pushed it above the entire range it had occupied before — a larger single-period move than anything seen earlier in the contract's short history. No single publicly reported event explains this move; it should be read as the market becoming more confident the ceasefire will survive to 15 August, without a confirmed external trigger recorded here.
Analysis
Context
Israel and Iran fought a direct, sustained military exchange in 2025 that included air strikes and missile fire between the two countries, a confrontation that also drew in US strikes on Iranian nuclear-linked sites. A ceasefire followed, brokered with heavy US diplomatic involvement, and it has held without a confirmed direct strike by either side since. This contract asks whether that arrangement survives roughly two more weeks, through 15 August 2026.
The stakes are not abstract. Iran's nuclear program, its regional proxy network, and Israel's stated red lines on both remain unresolved even with the guns quiet. Analysts and officials on both sides have described the ceasefire as fragile rather than a settled peace, meaning the underlying disputes that caused the 2025 fighting have not gone away, only paused.
The question is narrow by design: it is not asking whether tensions ease or diplomacy advances, only whether a specific kind of military action — an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other country — occurs before the deadline. Interceptions, air-defense fire, cyber activity, and smaller-scale exchanges are explicitly excluded from what would break the ceasefire for the purposes of this market.
This is a young, thinly tracked market. Price observations begin on 29 July 2026, just one day before this page was written, and the contract has already moved a wide amount for its short life. It opened at 62%, traded in a range of 57% to 72% during its first day, and then jumped to 74% — a move of 8 percentage points in the most recent 24 hours, larger than the entire range it had occupied up to that point. That kind of jump, arriving after a period of relative stability, usually signals that new information reached traders rather than gradual repricing; no single publicly reported trigger for this specific move is available here, so it should be read as a fact about market sentiment rather than attributed to one cause.
The direction of the move matters more than its size for understanding sentiment: traders became more, not less, confident that the ceasefire survives to 15 August. That is consistent with a pattern seen in most ceasefires after an intense conflict — the first days after a truce carry the highest risk of a violation, and each additional day without a strike tends to reinforce the belief that both sides have settled into avoiding renewed escalation, at least for now.
The settlement mechanism itself narrows what can flip this to No. Only a direct air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike counts; the exclusion of intercepted munitions, artillery, naval gunfire, ground incursions, and cyber activity means a meaningful amount of the friction that typically occurs between adversarial states during a fragile truce will not affect this contract's outcome. That structure tends to push the probability of Yes higher than a looser definition of
What moves the probability
US diplomatic pressure
Continued US engagement with both Israel and Iran, including the administration that brokered the 2025 ceasefire, raises the political cost of either side striking first. This pushes the probability of the ceasefire holding upward, though it does not eliminate the risk of a unilateral decision by either government.
Narrow definition of a qualifying strike
Because interceptions, artillery, naval gunfire, cyber operations, and ground incursions are all excluded from resolution, many forms of low-level friction between Israel and Iran will not trigger a No outcome. This structural feature pushes the resolved probability of Yes higher than a broader definition of conflict would.
Iran's nuclear and proxy posture
Iran's nuclear program and its regional proxies remain the core unresolved dispute from the 2025 conflict. Any Israeli assessment that Iran is rebuilding capability it considers a direct threat would be the most plausible path to a resumed strike before 15 August.
Short window to settlement
With settlement on 15 August 2026, only about two weeks remain from the date this page was written. A short window generally favors continuation of the status quo, since it reduces the number of days in which a new flashpoint could emerge.
The case for
- No confirmed Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike against the other country has been reported since the ceasefire took hold.
- The US has an active diplomatic stake in preserving the truce it helped broker in 2025, giving both sides an external incentive to avoid being blamed for renewed fighting.
- The resolution rules exclude interceptions, artillery, naval gunfire, ground incursions, and cyber operations, narrowing the range of events that could trigger a No outcome.
- Only roughly two weeks remain until the 15 August 2026 deadline, a short window relative to how long the ceasefire has already held.
The case against
- The underlying disputes from the 2025 conflict, including Iran's nuclear program and its regional proxy network, remain unresolved and could prompt a strike by either side at any point.
- Ceasefires between adversarial states with recent direct combat carry elevated risk of a single incident escalating quickly, and the market's own range (57% to 72%) before the latest jump shows traders themselves were far from certain.
- A strike that is later disputed as to whether it was a genuine surface-to-surface missile attack or something excluded, such as an intercepted munition, could create resolution disagreements even if a real incident occurs.
- The 8-percentage-point jump in the last 24 hours shows the market can move quickly in either direction, meaning today's reading is not a guarantee of where it will sit closer to settlement.