How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if no qualifying strike by Israel or Iran against the other occurs through 6 November 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, and at $0 if one does. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that outcome is โ a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would imply traders see roughly a three-in-ten chance the ceasefire holds, not this market's actual level. Settlement is based on verified reporting from Israeli and Iranian official statements and international agencies, chiefly Reuters and AP. Resolution is scheduled for 7 November 2026, and a position in this contract can typically be sold before then at whatever price the market is showing at the time.
Yes98%
No2%
Probability
How the price has moved
The consensus probability stands at 97% on the single venue tracked, Polymarket, with $441,887 in volume behind it. No detailed intraday or weekly move data is available beyond this reading, but a figure this close to certainty, carried on meaningful volume, indicates the market has settled into a high-confidence view rather than one still being actively repriced. Given the absence of any publicly reported qualifying strike, there is no identifiable trigger for a reversal to point to; the stability itself is the signal.
Analysis
Context
Israel and Iran fought a direct, open conflict in June 2025, trading air strikes and missile fire before a ceasefire took hold with US involvement. Since then, both governments have avoided resuming the kind of direct strikes that defined that conflict, even as underlying disputes โ Iran's nuclear program, Israeli strikes on Iranian proxies, and sanctions โ remain unresolved. This market asks a narrow, time-bound question: did that truce survive, strike-free, all the way to 6 November 2026.
The resolution standard is specific. It counts air strikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes that directly hit the other country. It explicitly excludes intercepted munitions, naval or artillery fire, ground incursions, cyberattacks and small-arms fire โ all of which could occur without affecting the outcome of this contract. That narrow definition matters: it means the ceasefire can look fragile in the news without this market moving, because only one specific category of event decides it.
The market-implied probability sits at 97% across the one venue tracked here, Polymarket, with $441,887 in total trading volume. That is a high-confidence, low-dispersion reading: there is no second venue to compare it against, so there is no cross-market spread to interpret, but a single-venue price this close to certainty with real volume behind it tells you traders see very little chance of a qualifying strike in the time remaining before the 6 November 2026 deadline. The question resolves the following day, so by the time most readers see this page, the window for a surprise has narrowed to hours, not weeks.
The structure of the resolution rules does a lot of the work here. Because intercepted munitions, naval fire, artillery exchanges, cyberattacks and ground incursions are explicitly excluded, the market is not pricing "no tension at all" โ it is pricing the narrower and more demanding question of whether either side commits to a direct air or missile strike on the other's territory. That is the kind of event that tends to be preceded by visible military signaling, troop movements, or public threats, which is part of why a near-certain price can hold steady even amid ongoing regional friction: the absence of those visible precursors is itself informative.
Historically, the June 2025 conflict escalated and de-escalated quickly once direct strikes began, which is instructive for how fast this market could move if a strike did occur โ probably in a single sharp repricing rather than a gradual drift. The fact that the price has instead sat near its current high level, rather than shown that kind of violent swing, is itself the strongest evidence that no such strike has occurred in the lead-up to 6 November 2026. Absent a publicly reported trigger, there is no basis to expect a late reversal.
What moves the probability
No reported strikes to date
Reuters and AP have not reported a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike between Israel and Iran in the run-up to 6 November 2026. This absence is the single largest factor keeping the price near its current level, since the contract only cares about this specific category of event.
Narrow time window left
With resolution falling at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 6 November 2026 and settlement the next day, there are only hours left for a qualifying strike to occur. A short remaining window mechanically limits how much the probability can move before settlement.
Exclusions narrow what counts
Naval fire, artillery exchanges, ground incursions, cyberattacks and small-arms fire do not count toward resolution. This means visible friction short of a direct strike does not move this market, which helps explain why the price can stay high even if regional tension is reported elsewhere.
US military presence as a deterrent
Continued US military and diplomatic engagement in the region, a legacy of its role in brokering the 2025 ceasefire, raises the perceived cost to either side of initiating a new direct strike. This pushes the probability of continued ceasefire upward, though it is not something the market can price with precision.
Single-venue pricing
All tracked volume and the 97% figure come from one venue, Polymarket, with no second venue to cross-check. That limits the amount of independent confirmation available, even though the volume behind the price is not trivial.
The case for
- No qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike has been reported by Reuters or AP as of early November 2026.
- Both Israel and Iran have avoided renewed direct strikes since the ceasefire followed the June 2025 conflict.
- Only a few hours remain before the 6 November 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time deadline, leaving little time for a new strike to occur and be confirmed.
- Continued US engagement in the region raises the diplomatic and military cost of either side initiating a strike before the deadline.
The case against
- A single confirmed air strike or missile strike by either country before the deadline would resolve the market No regardless of how calm the prior months were.
- Underlying disputes โ Iran's nuclear program, Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked targets elsewhere, and sanctions pressure โ remain unresolved and could trigger a rapid escalation.
- The narrow definition of a qualifying strike excludes naval fire, artillery exchanges and cyberattacks, meaning hostile activity in those categories could occur and even intensify without being reflected in this price until it crosses into a direct strike.
- Conflicts in this region have escalated quickly before, as in June 2025, so a calm period is not a guarantee against a sudden reversal in the final hours.
What to watch
The remaining hours before 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on 6 November 2026 are the entire window left for this question. Any Reuters or AP report of an Israeli air strike on Iranian territory, or an Iranian surface-to-surface missile strike on Israel, would resolve the market No immediately. Official statements from Israeli or Iranian government channels in this final stretch, and any US statements about regional military posture, are the specific things to track before the 7 November 2026 resolution.
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