World
Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold through 31 August 2026?
chance the market gives this event — not your chance of being right
- Yes — The event happens
- 62%
- No — The event does not happen
- 38%
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In short
The market currently leans toward the ceasefire holding, but not by a wide margin, and it moved sharply in the last day. The size of that move, on a market barely a day old with only one venue trading it, suggests traders are still working out how much weight to put on any single report. A single verified air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike from either side would flip this to No immediately.
How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if no qualifying strike happens before the deadline, and at nothing if one does. The settlement date is 31 August 2026 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, and the determination rests on verified reports of an Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting the other country. The price at any moment is simply the market's current estimate of that chance — a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would imply traders see the ceasefire breaking roughly seven times out of ten, not three. A position bought today does not have to be held to settlement; it can be sold at whatever price the market offers before 31 August.
Yes62%
No38%
Probability
How the price has moved
The market opened at 52% on 29 July 2026 and held in a 48% to 57% range for its first day of trading. In the past 24 hours it rose 8 percentage points, pushing it above the top of that initial range. Given that the market has only 29 recorded price observations and trades on a single venue, this looks like a market still finding its footing rather than one reacting to a widely reported event; the move follows no single publicly reported trigger evident in the available data.
Context
This market asks whether Israel and Iran will avoid a fresh direct military exchange for the rest of the summer, through 31 August 2026. The two countries have spent years in indirect confrontation — through proxies, cyber operations and intelligence actions — but the question here is narrower: does the current ceasefire survive a defined and reasonably short window without either side launching an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other's territory.
The resolution rules are precise about what counts. Air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes that directly impact the other country trigger a No. Intercepted munitions, naval or artillery fire, ground incursions, cyberattacks and minor short-range strikes do not count, even if they make headlines. That distinction matters because it means the ceasefire can absorb a certain amount of friction — interceptions, skirmishes, cyber incidents — without breaking the market's definition of holding.
The stakes go beyond the two countries involved. Any breakdown carries direct consequences for oil markets, shipping through the Gulf, and US military posture in the region, since Washington has repeatedly been pulled into mediating or responding to Israel-Iran escalation.
Analysis
The market opened on 29 July 2026 at 52% and has traded in a narrow 48% to 57% band since, before jumping 8 percentage points in the past 24 hours to reach its current level. That is a large move for a market this young — the entire prior range spanned only 9 points, and the latest 24-hour shift alone exceeds it. With just 29 price observations recorded so far, each new trade carries outsized weight, which is one reason the swing looks abrupt rather than gradual.
Only one venue, Polymarket, is currently trading this question, with $575,883 in volume. That means there is no cross-venue spread to check the price against — a useful gap when it exists, because divergence between venues usually signals disagreement about how a report will be verified or how strict the settlement criteria will be applied. Here, the absence of a second venue means the single Polymarket price is the only signal available, and it should be read with the caveat that thin, single-venue markets can move on a handful of large trades rather than a broad shift in view.
The underlying mechanics of the question favor continuation of the ceasefire on paper: the settlement criteria exclude a wide range of lower-intensity incidents — intercepted munitions, artillery exchanges, ground incursions, cyberattacks, short-range strikes — that could otherwise generate sensational headlines without resolving the market No. That gives both governments room to manage friction below the threshold that would trigger a break. At the same time, the bar for a No is a single confirmed strike, which is a low threshold in an environment where either side's assessment of the other's nuclear or missile programs could change quickly. The rise to the current level suggests traders read the last day's information as reducing near-term escalation risk, though no single publicly reported trigger for the jump is evident in the data itself.
What moves the probability
Strike threshold is narrow but binary
Only a confirmed air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting the other country resolves this No; everything else, including intercepted munitions and short-range fire, does not count. This raises the bar for a No relative to a broader definition, but once that bar is met the market settles immediately.
Single-venue, thin-history pricing
With only Polymarket trading this and just 29 observations since 29 July 2026, the price can move sharply on a small number of large trades. The 8-point move in the last 24 hours should be read against that backdrop rather than as a broad consensus shift.
US mediation and regional posture
Washington has repeatedly acted as an intermediary or a restraining factor in prior Israel-Iran flare-ups, and continued US diplomatic engagement generally pushes the probability of the ceasefire holding upward.
Nuclear and missile program monitoring
Any new intelligence assessment about Iranian enrichment activity or missile testing, or an Israeli response to one, is the most direct path to a qualifying strike and would push the probability down sharply and quickly.
Proxy-level friction
Continued activity by Hezbollah, the Houthis or Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and Syria raises background tension without directly counting toward settlement unless it escalates into a direct Israel-Iran strike, keeping this a secondary rather than primary driver.
The case for
- No Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hits the other's territory at any point before 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
- Lower-intensity incidents such as interceptions, artillery fire, cyberattacks or short-range strikes can occur without breaking the ceasefire under these settlement rules.
- Continued US or third-party diplomatic engagement keeps both governments from crossing the direct-strike threshold during the remaining weeks of the window.
- The market's recent upward move suggests traders currently see the risk of a qualifying strike as lower than they did a day earlier.
The case against
- A single verified air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike from either side before the deadline resolves the market No regardless of context.
- Roughly a month remains before settlement, giving ample time for an intelligence trigger — such as a new assessment of Iranian enrichment or missile activity — to prompt a strike.
- The market has already shown a 9-point range and an 8-point single-day swing in its short history, indicating traders see meaningful uncertainty rather than a settled outcome.
- Prior direct confrontations between the two countries have shown that escalation, once it starts, can move from proxy or low-level friction to a direct strike quickly.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee
Venues (1)
- PolymarketRecommendedYes62%0.62
- Volume (24h)
- US$41.2k
- Fee
- 0%
Resolution rules
Polymarket determines the outcome using verified reports of Israeli or Iranian air strikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes that directly impact the other country. The market resolves Yes if no such qualifying strike occurs before 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, and No if one does. Intercepted munitions, naval or artillery fire, ground incursions, cyberattacks and minor short-range strikes are explicitly excluded from triggering a No.
Calculation methodology →Local context
US policy toward Iran, the size of any American military deployment in the region, and the price of oil all move on whether this ceasefire holds, because a resumption of direct Israel-Iran strikes has historically pushed crude prices higher on fears of disruption to Gulf shipping and Iranian output. For readers in the UK, Canada, Australia and India, the more direct channel is energy prices and the secondary effects of US foreign policy shifts, since Washington's regional security commitments and diplomatic bandwidth are shaped in large part by whether this conflict stays contained.
What to watch
The main thing to watch is any verified report of an Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting the other's territory, which would resolve the market No immediately regardless of the date. Short of that, watch for shifts in US diplomatic engagement with either government, any new intelligence assessments of Iran's nuclear or missile programs, and activity from Iran-aligned proxy forces that could raise the odds of direct escalation. The settlement window closes on 31 August 2026 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, after which the contract resolves based on whether a qualifying strike occurred at any point in the preceding month.
Common questions
- What exactly settles this market and when?
- The market settles based on verified reports of an Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting the other country. It resolves Yes if no such strike occurs before 31 August 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time, and No if one occurs before that deadline.
- What does the current price actually mean?
- The price is the market's live estimate of the chance the ceasefire holds through the deadline, expressed as a probability between 0 and 100%. It is not a prediction from any single analyst or institution, but the aggregate of what traders are currently willing to pay for a contract that pays $1 if the ceasefire holds.
- Does an intercepted missile or a naval skirmish count as breaking the ceasefire?
- No. The settlement rules explicitly exclude intercepted munitions, naval or artillery fire, ground incursions, cyberattacks and minor short-range strikes. Only a direct air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike hitting the other country's territory triggers a No.
- What happens if there is a strike but it is disputed or unverified?
- Resolution depends on verified reports, so an unconfirmed or disputed incident would not immediately settle the market. In practice this means there can be a lag between an initial report and final settlement if verification takes time.
- Why does the price cover such a wide range in just a few days?
- The market is new, having first been recorded on 29 July 2026, and trades on a single venue with only 29 price observations so far. Small trades can move the price noticeably in a market this thin, which explains both the initial 48% to 57% range and the recent 8-point jump.
- Can a position be exited before 31 August 2026?
- Yes. Contracts can generally be sold on the venue before settlement, at whatever price the market is offering at that time, rather than being held until the resolution date.
Related events
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