How the contract works
A contract on this event settles at $1 if Manchester Super Giants are recorded as the winner of the 14 August 2026 match against Sunrisers Leeds, and at nothing if they are not. The rules also cover edge cases: a result reached through DLS, DRS review, an over-rate penalty, forfeit or walkover still counts as an ordinary win for whichever side is declared victorious, and a match tied on the field but settled by a Super Over uses that outcome. If the match were tied with no tiebreak, or abandoned without a winner, the contract would resolve as a 50-50 split rather than a clean yes or no. Settlement is scheduled by 21 August 2026, drawing on official match statistics from the governing body, with credible reporting used only if those statistics are not available within two hours of the match ending. A position in this contract can typically be sold before settlement at whatever price the market is offering at that moment.
Yes99%
No1%
Probability
How the price has moved
The only figure available is a consensus of 100% built from $535,186 in volume on Polymarket, the sole venue tracked for this contract. No pre-match range or day-over-day movement is on record here, but a reading this close to full certainty on a single completed match is the signature of a market pricing a known result rather than an open contest. Any volatility in this contract almost certainly occurred during the match itself, when the outcome was still live; once the final result was clear, the price would have moved quickly toward one extreme and stayed there.
Analysis
Context
The Hundred is England and Wales Cricket Board's short-format domestic competition, played each August with eight city-based franchises. For the 2026 season several franchises carry new ownership and, in some cases, new names tied to investment from Indian Premier League groups; Sunrisers Leeds and Manchester Super Giants are among the rebranded sides competing this year. Both teams play a 100-ball-per-innings format designed to fit a single evening broadcast window, with the group stage feeding into playoffs later in August.
The specific match in question was scheduled for 14 August 2026, as part of the group-stage schedule. By the time this contract is being checked, that fixture has already been completed, which is why the pricing looks the way it does. The competition's business end, including eliminators and finals, follows shortly after, and results in these final group matches carry weight for playoff qualification.
The consensus across tracked venues sits at 100%, all of it concentrated on a single platform, Polymarket, which has recorded $535,186 in volume on this contract. A reading this close to full certainty, on a market covering a single completed cricket match, almost always means the underlying event has already happened and the outcome is public knowledge rather than a genuine forecast of a future contest. Given the match date of 14 August 2026 falls two days before this page's reference date of 16 August 2026, that is the most straightforward explanation: traders are pricing a known result, not projecting one.
The settlement structure itself is worth noting because it is unusually explicit about edge cases for a single T20-style fixture. The rules name DLS adjustments, DRS-driven outcomes, over-rate penalties, forfeits and walkovers as all producing an ordinary win, and they specify that a Super Over result stands if the match is tied. This level of detail suggests the contract was built to handle the range of ways a Hundred match can finish, including rain-affected fixtures, which are not uncommon at English grounds in August. The presence of a defined 50-50 fallback for an abandoned or unresolved tie shows the market designer anticipated that outcome as a real possibility before the match, even if it did not occur here.
Volume of $535,186 on a single completed domestic cricket fixture is moderate for a sports contract of this type. It indicates some sustained trading interest around the match, likely concentrated in the hours before and during play when the outcome was still genuinely uncertain, rather than a large late rush once the result was known. The absence of a second venue with a differing price is also informative: there is no visible spread to interpret, no arbitrage signal between platforms, because only one venue is listed as trading it.
What moves the probability
Match already completed
The fixture took place on 14 August 2026, before this page's reference date of 16 August 2026. This is the dominant force behind the price: once a match ends, the contract stops being a forecast and starts tracking a known, reportable fact.
Official scorecard availability
Settlement depends on ESPNcricinfo's official match statistics, expected within two hours of the match ending. Any delay in that data pushes settlement toward the fallback of credible reporting consensus, which slightly widens the window for uncertainty but does not usually change the outcome.
On-field tiebreak rules
The market treats a Super Over result as decisive if the match is tied, which removes one common source of settlement ambiguity in the 100-ball format. This matters because tied matches, while uncommon, do happen in short-format cricket and would otherwise leave the result unclear.
Abandonment fallback
If the match had been abandoned with no result and no tiebreak possible, the rules specify a 50-50 resolution rather than a refund or extended settlement. English August weather makes this a real, if minor, structural risk built into the contract design even though it evidently did not apply here.
The case for
- For this contract to settle yes, Manchester Super Giants must be the side officially recorded as the winner of the 14 August 2026 match by ESPNcricinfo or, if that data is delayed beyond two hours, by credible reporting consensus.
- That win can be achieved through a standard run or wicket margin, a DLS-adjusted target in a rain-affected match, a Super Over after a tie, or a walkover or forfeit if either applied.
- The 100% consensus price is consistent with this condition already having been met and publicly reported.
The case against
- For the contract to settle no, Sunrisers Leeds must be the officially recorded winner under the same range of possible match outcomes, including a Super Over result if the match was tied.
- A match abandoned or cancelled without a winner, and without a tiebreak available, would resolve the contract at 50-50 rather than a clean no, which the current 100% price suggests did not happen here.
- Any dispute over the official scorecard before the 21 August 2026 settlement date could, in theory, delay resolution, though the rules provide a reporting-consensus fallback specifically to avoid that.
What to watch
The formal settlement date is 21 August 2026, when ESPNcricinfo's official match record becomes the primary reference. Between now and then, the only realistic sources of change are a delay in that official data, which would trigger the two-hour fallback to credible reporting consensus, or a post-match review that alters the recorded result, both of which are uncommon in domestic English cricket. Beyond this specific contract, the broader story to watch is how this result feeds into The Hundred's 2026 playoff picture as the group stage closes out later in August.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
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