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Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels by 31 August 2026?

Resolution: Updated:
7%

market consensus

chance the market gives this event โ€” not your chance of being right

Yes โ€” The event happens
7%
No โ€” The event does not happen
93%
Venue range
7% โ€” 7%

Trade this contract

Open on PolymarketYes 0.07
  • gas covered
  • no trading fee
Buy the opposite sideNo 0.94

In short

The market treats a full return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by 31 August 2026 as very unlikely. Persistent regional tension has kept vessel arrivals well below the pre-crisis baseline that IMF PortWatch uses to define normal traffic, and only about a month remains for a rebound to register. A ceasefire or clear de-escalation involving the parties in the Gulf, followed by insurers lowering war-risk premiums and ships resuming normal routing, is the main thing that could shift this.

How the contract works

A contract on this market settles at $1 if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 on any date up to 31 August 2026, and at nothing if that never happens. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that is โ€” a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would mean the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance of the threshold being hit in time, not that shippers expect a partial recovery. Positions can typically be sold before 31 August 2026 at whatever price the market has moved to by then, rather than held to settlement.
What the market thinks happens
$100
Yes7%

The event happens

Costs now
$0.07
If you put in $100
$1,429
No93%

The event does not happen

Costs now
$0.93
If you put in $100
$108

Probability

0%25%50%75%100%12:0017:3623:1204:4810:2416:00
ConsensusKalshiPolymarket

How the price has moved

The market has been tracked only since 29 July 2026, but its short history tells a consistent story. It opened with the probability of a return to normal at roughly 9%, traded within a narrow 1% to 9% band, and now sits at 7% after a 3.0 percentage point rise over the past day. There is no sharp repricing anywhere in that history โ€” the move follows no single publicly reported trigger โ€” which points to a market that settled on a low-probability view quickly and has seen little since to change it. The identical pricing across Polymarket and Kalshi, with a spread of 0.0 percentage points, reinforces that this is a stable, shared assessment rather than one venue leading the other.

Context

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. It is the only maritime route out for oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran itself, and it is commonly cited as carrying around a fifth of the world's oil trade. Any sustained drop in transits there has direct consequences for global energy markets. IMF PortWatch tracks vessel movements at major chokepoints using satellite tracking data, reporting a 7-day moving average of transit calls. This market resolves Yes only if that average reaches or exceeds 60 calls on any date up to 31 August 2026 โ€” a level meant to represent something close to the pre-disruption baseline for the strait. If PortWatch does not publish a reading at or above that threshold by the deadline, or shortly after under each venue's grace period for data publication, the market resolves No. The market was first tracked on 29 July 2026, meaning it has only a short trading history so far, but both major venues already show a firm, near-identical view on where this stands.

Analysis

The consensus across venues sits at 7%, and it is unusually well agreed: Polymarket and Kalshi, which together have traded $6,340,850 on this question, show identical prices with a spread of 0.0 percentage points between them. Both settle by the same source, IMF PortWatch, so that agreement is not surprising โ€” there is no dispute here about whose data feed to trust, only about how likely a specific data outcome is. The history is short but informative. When the market was first recorded on 29 July 2026, the probability of a return to normal stood at roughly 9%. It has traded in a narrow band since, moving between about 1% and 9%, and is currently at 7% after rising 3.0 percentage points in the past day. That is a market that has consistently priced this as a long shot from day one, with only small day-to-day adjustments rather than any dramatic repricing โ€” a sign that whatever is driving the disruption has not meaningfully changed in the last 24 hours, even as the number ticks slightly higher. The mechanics of the settlement rule matter as much as the politics. Sixty transit calls in a 7-day average is not a low bar during an active security disruption: shipping companies that have rerouted, slow-steamed, or added war-risk insurance surcharges do not reverse those decisions overnight, even if tensions ease. Vessel scheduling, crew safety assessments and insurance underwriting all take time to normalize, and with roughly a month left before the 31 August 2026 deadline, the window for that full a recovery to show up in PortWatch's data is short. The 87 recorded price observations so far, all clustered at the low end of the range, suggest a market that formed its view quickly and has seen little reason to revise it since. That is consistent with a situation where the underlying facts on the ground โ€” whatever security or geopolitical conditions are suppressing traffic โ€” have not shifted enough to change the calculus.

What moves the probability

  • Regional security conditions

    Ongoing tension in the Gulf keeps war-risk insurance premiums elevated and pushes shipping companies to reroute or slow-steam through the strait rather than transit at normal pace. This is the dominant force holding the probability down, since it directly suppresses the vessel-call count PortWatch measures.

  • The 60-call threshold itself

    The settlement bar represents something close to a pre-disruption baseline, not a partial or gradual recovery. Reaching it requires a broad, sustained rebound in traffic rather than a few extra transits, which makes Yes structurally harder to hit.

  • Time remaining before 31 August 2026

    With only about a month left, there is limited room for insurers, ship operators and charterers to fully reverse the operational changes made during the disruption, even if conditions improve. A shorter window mechanically favors No.

  • Venue agreement on the same data source

    Polymarket and Kalshi both settle by IMF PortWatch and show a 0.0 percentage point spread, meaning there is no cross-venue disagreement to arbitrage. That reinforces confidence that the 7% figure reflects a genuine, shared read of the situation rather than a pricing anomaly.

  • Data publication lag

    PortWatch updates its figures with some delay after vessel movements occur, which slightly shortens the effective window in which a qualifying reading could appear before the deadline. This is a modest but real drag on the probability of Yes.

The case for

  • A ceasefire or verified de-escalation involving the parties active in the Gulf would need to take hold well before 31 August 2026 to leave time for shipping to normalize.
  • Insurers would need to lower war-risk premiums for Hormuz transits, and ship operators would need to resume standard routing and scheduling rather than continuing to reroute or slow-steam.
  • IMF PortWatch would need to publish a 7-day moving average of transit calls at or above 60 on at least one date before the deadline, reflecting a broad rebound rather than a temporary spike.
  • This would have to happen within the roughly one-month window remaining, which is short relative to how long shipping and insurance markets typically take to fully reset after a disruption.

The case against

  • Regional tensions affecting the Gulf remain unresolved as of late July 2026, with no confirmed de-escalation reported.
  • Shipping companies have adjusted routing, speed and insurance arrangements in response to the disruption, and those changes do not reverse quickly even if conditions improve.
  • Only about a month remains before the 31 August 2026 deadline, a tight window for a full return to a 60-call, 7-day average baseline.
  • Both major venues price this at just 7% with zero spread between them, indicating a rare degree of agreement that the threshold will not be met in time.

Trade this contract

Venues (2)

Open on PolymarketYes 0.07
  • gas covered
  • no trading fee

Venues (2)

Probability

  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?7%
  • Before September 1, 20267%
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?1%

Resolution rules

Determined by
IMF PortWatch
Resolution date

This market is settled using IMF PortWatch, which publishes a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at major global chokepoints based on tracked vessel movements. It resolves Yes if that average for the Strait of Hormuz reaches 60 or more transit calls on any date up to 31 August 2026, counting container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo and tanker vessels. Both Polymarket and Kalshi use this same PortWatch data as their settlement source, which is why their prices track each other exactly with no spread between them.

Calculation methodology โ†’

Local context

For US, UK and other Western readers, the Strait of Hormuz matters because a large share of the world's seaborne oil moves through it, and a prolonged disruption there keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. That premium feeds through to pump prices, inflation readings, and the calculations central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England make about interest rates, making this a market with a direct line to household energy bills and borrowing costs even for people who never trade it.

What to watch

Between now and 31 August 2026, the key things to watch are any ceasefire, de-escalation statement or security guarantee involving the parties active around the Gulf; IMF PortWatch's periodic updates to its 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls; advisories from maritime safety bodies covering the strait; and any visible shift in war-risk insurance premiums quoted for vessels transiting the area, since that cost is often the first signal of changing shipping behavior.

Common questions

What exactly needs to happen for this market to resolve Yes?
IMF PortWatch must publish a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 on any date up to 31 August 2026. If that never happens, or PortWatch does not publish a qualifying figure within the grace period after the deadline, it resolves No.
What does a price of 7% actually mean here?
It means the market currently sees roughly a 7-in-100 chance that PortWatch will report that 60-call threshold before the deadline. It is not a measure of how much traffic has recovered, only of how likely a full rebound to that specific baseline is judged to be in the time remaining.
What happens if the IMF PortWatch data is delayed or unclear near the deadline?
Each venue applies its own grace period for data publication after 31 August 2026. If no qualifying reading is published within that window, the market resolves No rather than waiting indefinitely.
Why is 60 transit calls the bar for 'normal'?
The settlement rule sets 60 as the 7-day average of arrivals across container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo and tanker vessels that is treated as representing pre-disruption traffic levels through the strait.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show exactly the same price?
Both venues settle this market using IMF PortWatch as the resolution source, so there is no difference in the underlying data they are pricing against. That is why the spread between them is 0.0 percentage points.
Has the probability moved much since the market opened?
Not dramatically. It opened near 9% on 29 July 2026, has stayed within a 1% to 9% range, and is at 7% now after a small rise in the last day, indicating a market that formed a low-probability view early and has not seen reason to revise it much.

Related events

7%/ 94%
Yes / No
Open on Polymarket