How the contract works
A contract on this question pays $1 if Coco Gauff is recorded as the winner of the match against Mirra Andreeva, and pays nothing if Andreeva is recorded as the winner. If the match is not completed because of retirement, default or disqualification, the player who advances is treated as the winner for settlement purposes. If the result is still unresolved, disputed or ends in a walkover by 22 September 2026, the contract settles 50-50 instead. A price of, say, 0.30 on a contract like this would mean the market saw roughly a three-in-ten chance of that outcome; the actual current price is shown separately and updates as new information arrives. Settlement is based on official WTA Tour results, and a position in this contract can generally be sold before 15 September 2026 at whatever price the market is offering at that moment.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
The data available shows a consensus of 0% across the one venue trading this contract, Polymarket, on total volume of $3,360,224. No separate opening level, daily move, or weekly move figures are available for this market, so the honest read is limited to where the price sits right now: at the extreme low end of the possible range. Given that the scheduled match date, 8 September 2026, has already passed by the time this page is being read, a price parked near zero is best explained by the market having already absorbed a real-world result rather than by any single reported news event moving it after the fact.
Analysis
Context
Coco Gauff, the American who won the US Open in 2023, and Mirra Andreeva, a Russian teenager who has risen fast through the WTA rankings on the back of deep runs at majors, were drawn against each other at the 2026 US Open. The match was scheduled for 8 September 2026. This contract asks a single yes-or-no question: did Gauff advance past Andreeva in that match.
The contract settles using official WTA Tour results published at wtatennis.com/scores. The rules cover the ordinary case, a straight win for either player, and the harder cases: if the match ends by retirement, default or disqualification, the player left standing is the winner; if the match is somehow still undecided or the result disputed by 22 September 2026, or if it ends in a walkover, the contract resolves 50-50 instead of picking a winner.
For US audiences in particular, this was one of the marquee matchups of the tournament: a former champion and home favorite against one of the sport's most closely watched rising players.
The single clearest fact here is timing. The match was scheduled for 8 September 2026, and today is 10 September 2026. Unless the match itself was delayed, a result already exists in the outside world by the time this page is being read, and the market price is simply catching up to that fact rather than forecasting it. A price sitting at the extreme low end of its possible range, as it does here, is exactly what a prediction market looks like once the underlying event has effectively been decided rather than merely anticipated.
All of the trading in this contract, $3,360,224 in volume, has happened on a single venue, Polymarket. That concentration matters for how much weight to put on the number: there is no second independent venue to cross-check the price against, so the figure reflects the positioning of whoever has traded on that one platform rather than a consensus built across multiple pools of participants. Still, volume in the millions of dollars on a single sports match is a meaningful amount of money backing that view.
The settlement design itself is written to handle the untidy scenarios that come up in tennis specifically: a retirement mid-match, a default, or a disqualification. In each of those cases the rule is simple, the player who advances is the winner, which removes most of the ambiguity that could otherwise leave a match's result contested. The only scenario that produces a 50-50 settlement instead of a clean winner is if the result remains genuinely undecided, disputed, or reduced to a walkover by 22 September 2026, a full week after the original match date and a week after this contract's stated resolution date of 15 September 2026. That gap between the two dates is itself informative: it exists to give the WTA's official record time to become final and uncontested before money changes hands.
On the tennis itself, Gauff arrived at this matchup with a US Open title already on her résumé, from 2023, giving her a track record at this exact tournament that Andreeva, as a fast-rising but younger player, does not yet have at this event. That history does not decide a single match, but it is part of the backdrop against which the market's near-zero price on a Gauff win looks unusual, and worth noting rather than assuming away.
What moves the probability
Match date already passed
The scheduled date of 8 September 2026 is two days before today, so the market price is very likely responding to a known or strongly rumored result rather than forecasting an uncertain future event. This is the single biggest reason the price sits where it does.
Single-venue pricing
All $3,360,224 in recorded volume sits on Polymarket alone, with no second venue to compare against. That means the price is a read on one pool of participants, not a cross-market consensus, even though the dollar amount behind it is substantial.
Retirement and default rules
The settlement terms specify that if the match ends by retirement, default or disqualification, the advancing player is the winner regardless of the score at the time. This closes off most routes to an ambiguous result and pushes the market toward a decisive settlement rather than a 50-50 outcome.
22 September fallback
If the result is still disputed, canceled, or reduced to a walkover by 22 September 2026, the contract pays out 50-50 instead of picking a winner. This is a narrow escape hatch, relevant only in the case of an official dispute over the WTA record, not a general source of uncertainty.
The case for
- Gauff would need to have won the actual match on 8 September 2026, either outright or by Andreeva retiring, defaulting or being disqualified while Gauff was the advancing player.
- Gauff's 2023 US Open title shows she has previously gone deep at this exact event, which is part of the case that she could have done so again in 2026.
- If the official WTA record at wtatennis.com/scores lists Gauff as the winner, the contract settles in her favor regardless of how competitive the match was.
The case against
- The price sitting near the bottom of its range as of two days after the scheduled match date is most consistent with Andreeva being recorded as the winner rather than Gauff.
- Andreeva's rise through the WTA rankings on the strength of deep major runs is the kind of form that would make a win over Gauff plausible on the day.
- Unless there is a formal dispute over the result lodged before 22 September 2026, the fallback 50-50 clause has no bearing on this outcome and the market's near-zero pricing stands unchallenged.
What to watch
The official WTA Tour results page, wtatennis.com/scores, is the named settlement source and is the first place to check for the confirmed outcome. The contract's stated resolution date is 15 September 2026, with a fallback rule that pushes to a 50-50 settlement if the result remains undecided, disputed, or reduced to a walkover by 22 September 2026. Between now and then, the only thing that would move this price is a formal challenge to the recorded WTA result, which would be unusual for a completed match.
Trade this contract
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