How the contract works
A contract on this event settles at $1 if the Fed's post-meeting statement on 28 October 2026 shows any change to the upper bound of the federal funds target range compared with the level before the meeting, and at nothing if the range is left exactly where it was. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the odds are โ a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance of a change, not that a change is expected. The event settles once the Fed publishes its statement after the 27-28 October 2026 meeting, and a position can typically be sold before then at whatever price the market has moved to.
Yes62%
No38%
Probability
How the price has moved
The contract was first recorded on 29 July 2026 at 98%, pricing a rate change as nearly certain. Within the same day it fell as low as 32% before recovering to a consensus near 70%, a swing that reflects a market still finding a stable price rather than a reaction to any single reported event. The move in the last 24 hours has been small, just 0.2 percentage points, suggesting the sharpest repricing has already happened and the market is now waiting on the September FOMC meeting and upcoming data for its next real signal.
Analysis
Context
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting body, meets eight times a year to set the federal funds target range, the benchmark that shapes mortgage rates, credit card rates and short-term Treasury yields across the US economy. The meeting in question is scheduled for 27-28 October 2026, the second-to-last gathering of the year before a final meeting in December. This page tracks whether the upper bound of the target range announced after that meeting differs at all from the level going in โ a cut, a hike, or a larger 50-basis-point move would all count as a change; holding the range exactly where it is would not.
By the time the FOMC sits down in late October, it will have already met once more, in mid-September, and will have digested two additional rounds of inflation and employment data. Those intervening releases, not anything visible today, are what will actually move the needle on this specific meeting.
This market is barely a day old. It was first recorded on 29 July 2026 at 98%, essentially pricing a rate change as near-certain, and within that same short window it swung as low as 32% before settling near 70% today โ a range of 67 percentage points in roughly 24 hours. That is not the signature of new information arriving; it is the signature of a market finding its footing. With only $92,456 in total volume and 90 recorded price observations, a handful of large orders can move the price substantially, and early prints on freshly listed markets are notoriously unreliable as a read on genuine sentiment.
The more recent movement is calmer: the price has added only 0.2 percentage points in the last 24 hours, suggesting the initial repricing from 98% down toward the 30s and back up to around 70% has largely played out and the market is now trading in a narrower band while it waits for actual data. A consensus near 70% means traders currently see a change at the October meeting as more likely than not, but with three months of economic releases still to come, that figure is a starting point rather than a settled view.
The mechanics of the FOMC calendar matter here. October 28 is not the next meeting โ September 16 is. Whatever the Fed does or signals in September, including any updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, will directly set the baseline expectation for October. If the Fed moves in September and frames it as the start of a sequence, traders will price a strong chance of a follow-through change in October. If the Fed holds in September and signals patience, the odds of an October change should fall, all else equal.
Data releases in between will do the rest. Two more employment reports and two more inflation prints (CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge) will land before the October meeting, and each has historically been capable of shifting FOMC-meeting pricing by ten points or more when it surprises consensus. Given how little trading history this specific contract has, the current 70% figure should be read as an early, low-confidence estimate rather than a settled forecast.
What moves the probability
September FOMC meeting (16 September 2026)
This meeting comes six weeks before the one being priced here and will set the trajectory the Fed is on heading into October. A cut or hike in September that the Fed frames as part of a sequence raises the odds of a further October move; a hold framed as a pause lowers it.
August and September jobs reports
Two nonfarm payrolls reports land before the October meeting. A sharp weakening in hiring or a jump in unemployment would push the Fed toward easing and raise the odds of a change; a resilient labor market supports a hold.
CPI and PCE inflation data
Inflation readings for August and September will be published ahead of the meeting. Inflation running persistently above the Fed's 2% target argues for holding rates; a clear cooling trend argues for a cut.
Fed communication and the dot plot
Updated economic projections, if released in September, show where individual policymakers expect rates to be by year-end. A dot plot pointing toward more cuts in 2026 makes an October move more likely than one showing the Fed near done.
Market immaturity
With only $92,456 traded and a 24-hour-old price history that has already ranged from 32% to 99%, this contract has not yet built up enough volume for its price to be a stable read on sentiment; further large swings on modest trading volume are plausible in the near term.
The case for
- The Fed has room to keep adjusting policy if incoming inflation data continues to soften toward the 2% target.
- A weaker-than-expected August or September jobs report would strengthen the case for an October cut.
- If the September meeting produces a rate move framed as the start of a sequence, an October follow-through becomes more likely.
- A sudden inflation shock, such as an energy price spike, could instead push the Fed toward a hike, which would also count as a change under these settlement rules.
The case against
- The Fed has historically preferred to space out policy changes and may choose to hold in October regardless of September's outcome, especially heading into a December meeting where more data will be available.
- If inflation readings in August and September stay sticky above target, the Fed has grounds to keep rates unchanged and wait.
- A resilient labor market with steady payroll growth removes the urgency for a cut.
- The committee often avoids large moves in the run-up to year-end unless data forces its hand, favoring a hold at the October meeting.
What to watch
The next scheduled FOMC meeting is 15-16 September 2026, which will shape expectations for October. Between now and the 27-28 October 2026 meeting, watch the August and September nonfarm payrolls reports, the August and September CPI releases, and the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge for the same months. Any updated Summary of Economic Projections from the September meeting, if published, will also be closely read for signals on the rest of the year.
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