How the contract works
A contract on this market settles at $1 if Alcaraz is recorded as the player who advanced from this match, and at nothing if Wu advances instead. The price at any moment is simply the market's collective estimate of how likely that is: a contract trading at 0.30, for example, would imply traders think Alcaraz advances roughly three times in ten, not this market's actual level. The match itself, and therefore the settlement, is governed by the ATP Tour's official results page, with 11 September 2026 as the target resolution date and 18 September 2026 at 11:59 PM ET as a hard fallback if no winner is confirmed by then. A position in this contract can typically be sold to another trader before that date at whatever price the market is showing then, rather than held all the way to settlement.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
Only a single current reading is available here: a consensus of 0% on Polymarket, the sole venue listing this market, against $2,145,990 in trading volume. No earlier price trajectory, daily move, or weekly range has been reported for this contract, so the picture is a snapshot rather than a trend line. What that snapshot shows is a market that has moved to an extreme with real money behind it rather than sitting untouched at a rough pre-match guess, which is itself the most informative fact available: this is what a market looks like once it has stopped debating a future event and started pricing a known one.
Analysis
Context
Carlos Alcaraz and Yibing Wu were drawn to meet at the 2026 US Open, with the match originally scheduled for 4 September 2026. Alcaraz, a multiple Grand Slam champion, entered as the far more heavily favored player on paper against Wu, a Chinese professional who has built a solid ATP ranking but has no history of beating top-tier opposition at majors. The contract asks a single yes-or-no question: did Alcaraz advance in that match, by any means, including if Wu retired, defaulted, or was disqualified.
The consensus across venues sits at 0%, and the only venue currently listing this market, Polymarket, shows the same figure on $2,145,990 of trading volume. That combination is informative on its own: a market this close to zero, carrying more than $2 million in volume, is not a thin, untested price. It reflects a large amount of trading activity that has converged almost completely on one side of the question. Given that the match was originally scheduled for 4 September 2026 and this snapshot is taken the following day, the most straightforward reading is that the market has already absorbed the actual result of the match, or a strong signal about how it ended, rather than pricing in pre-match form. Markets rarely sit at an extreme like this while a match is still genuinely undecided; extreme prices this far from a coin flip almost always follow news, not speculation. The contract's own rules widen what counts as a resolution: if Wu advanced by any means, including a retirement, default, or disqualification by Alcaraz, the contract still resolves No. That broadens the paths to a No outcome beyond a straightforward loss on the scoreboard, which is one reason a price this lopsided can form quickly once any credible signal about the match reaches traders. The only mechanism that could pull this away from a clean Yes/No outcome is the contract's own fallback: if no winner is determined, or the match is canceled, tied, or ends in a walkover, it resolves 50-50 rather than fully to one side, but that is a narrow, specific condition rather than a live possibility being actively traded here.
What moves the probability
Match already played
The scheduled date of 4 September 2026 has passed by the time this market is being read, meaning the underlying event this contract tracks has most likely already concluded. That is the single largest force behind a price this close to an extreme, since traders are no longer pricing a future outcome but reacting to one that has likely already happened.
ATP Tour as sole source of truth
Settlement runs entirely through the ATP Tour's official results page, with no secondary source cited. That concentrates all resolution risk on one feed being updated correctly and on time, which matters for the resolution date but does not by itself explain the price level.
Broad definition of 'advances'
The rules count a retirement, default, or disqualification as deciding the match, not just a completed scoreline. This means a partial or interrupted match still produces a clear Yes or No, which supports a price converging quickly once any outcome, complete or not, becomes known.
Narrow 50-50 fallback
A tie, cancellation, walkover, or no winner by 18 September 2026 at 11:59 PM ET triggers a 50-50 resolution instead of a clean Yes or No. That is a specific, limited scenario, and its existence keeps the contract from ever trading at a literal, unqualified zero even when the market is highly confident.
The case for
- Alcaraz must be the player recorded as advancing from the 4 September 2026 match on the ATP Tour's official results page.
- If the match did not finish normally, Alcaraz must be the one who advances because Wu retired, defaulted, or was disqualified.
- No cancellation, tie, or walkover affecting this match can be recorded before the 18 September 2026 fallback deadline for a clean Yes to stand.
The case against
- Wu must be the player recorded as advancing from the match, whether by a completed win or by Alcaraz retiring, defaulting, or being disqualified.
- The near-zero consensus across the only venue trading this, on meaningful volume, is consistent with the market having already seen evidence that Wu, not Alcaraz, advanced.
- Nothing in the contract's rules requires a completed full match for a No outcome, so even an unusual ending still resolves against Alcaraz if Wu is the one who moves on.
What to watch
The only dates that matter now are the ones already written into the contract: 11 September 2026 as the intended resolution date, and 18 September 2026 at 11:59 PM ET as the hard fallback if the ATP Tour's results page has not produced a clear winner by then. Between now and then, the relevant check is simple and singular, the official match record on atptour.com/en/scores/current, since that page is the named and only source for how this settles.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered