0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.50mResolution: 1 March 2027
Events
- 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.05mResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.47mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$289.3kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
79%
price $0.79
Does not happen
21%
price $0.21
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$273.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$150.3kActual outcome: No