0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: No
Events
Will OpenAI announce a solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by 31 December 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$423.4kActual outcome: NoWill Anthropic Release a Fable Model (Version 5.2 or Higher) by 31 October 2026?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$399.0kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$336.0kActual outcome: No Will Anthropic complete an IPO by 15 December 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$314.6kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$306.2kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$153.7kActual outcome: No