0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.50mResolution: 1 March 2027
Events
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market cap exceed ยฅ400 billion in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$6.23mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$3.05mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the AI industry experience a bubble burst by the end of 2026?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.49mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.41mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.47mActual outcome: No Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$995.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI complete its IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$828.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$750.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the LMArena leaderboard at the end of October 2026?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$710.8kResolution: 31 October 2026Will Anthropic complete an IPO before 2027?
Happens
86%
price $0.86
Does not happen
14%
price $0.14
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$677.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$676.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$634.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI complete an IPO before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$609.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics complete an IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$513.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Databricks Complete an IPO Before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$494.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
Happens
72%
price $0.72
Does not happen
28%
price $0.28
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$436.5kResolution: 1 December 2026Will Zoom Video Communications Be Acquired Before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$431.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Happens
43%
price $0.43
Does not happen
57%
price $0.57
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$351.6kResolution: 31 December 2026Will OpenAI announce a solution to a Millennium Prize Problem by 31 December 2026?
Happens
16%
price $0.16
Does not happen
84%
price $0.84
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$349.8kActual outcome: NoWill OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Happens
9%
price $0.09
Does not happen
91%
price $0.91
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$332.5kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO market capitalization exceed ยฅ180 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$325.2kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$317.2kActual outcome: No Will Anthropic Release a Fable Model (Version 5.2 or Higher) by 31 October 2026?
Happens
25%
price $0.25
Does not happen
75%
price $0.75
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$306.3kActual outcome: No- 0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$289.3kActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
79%
price $0.79
Does not happen
21%
price $0.21
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$273.8kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Unitree Robotics' IPO close with a market capitalization above ยฅ250 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$268.4kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Apple release the iPhone 18 in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$252.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic complete an IPO by 15 December 2026?
Happens
84%
price $0.84
Does not happen
16%
price $0.16
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$251.5kActual outcome: NoWill Nvidia be the world's largest company by market cap on 31 October 2026?
Happens
79%
price $0.79
Does not happen
21%
price $0.21
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$225.0kResolution: 1 November 2026Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market capitalization exceed ยฅ100 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$192.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO close with a market capitalization above ยฅ60 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$154.9kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$150.3kActual outcome: No Will Oura's IPO value the company at $20 billion or more on day one?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$69.9kResolution: 1 January 2027