0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
92%
price $0.92
Does not happen
8%
price $0.08
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.45mResolution: 1 March 2027
Events
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market cap exceed ยฅ400 billion in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$6.23mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.39mResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
67%
price $0.67
Does not happen
33%
price $0.33
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.04mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Happens
8%
price $0.08
Does not happen
92%
price $0.92
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.18mResolution: 31 December 2026Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$977.4kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Apple release the iPhone 18 before 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$764.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$658.6kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$621.9kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Unitree Robotics complete an IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$513.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic complete an IPO before 2027?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$493.4kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Databricks Complete an IPO Before 2027?
Happens
7%
price $0.07
Does not happen
93%
price $0.93
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$487.7kResolution: 31 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on LMArena at the end of August 2026?
Happens
98%
price $0.98
Does not happen
2%
price $0.02
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$475.3kResolution: 31 August 2026 Will OpenAI complete an IPO before 2027?
Happens
18%
price $0.18
Does not happen
82%
price $0.82
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$467.6kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Zoom Video Communications Be Acquired Before 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$419.3kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Unitree Robotics' IPO market capitalization exceed ยฅ180 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$325.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO close with a market capitalization above ยฅ250 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$268.4kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
58%
price $0.58
Does not happen
42%
price $0.42
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$242.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Anthropic release a model called "Mythos" before January 1, 2027?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$223.4kActual outcome: No Will Alibaba have the top-ranked Chinese AI model on the Chimera Arena leaderboard at the end of August 2026?
Happens
93%
price $0.93
Does not happen
7%
price $0.07
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$205.2kResolution: 31 August 2026Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market capitalization exceed ยฅ100 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$192.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO close with a market capitalization above ยฅ60 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$154.9kResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Tesla and SpaceX Officially Announce a Merger by 31 December 2026?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$134.2kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO before January 1, 2027?
Happens
19%
price $0.19
Does not happen
81%
price $0.81
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$128.1kActual outcome: No Will Anthropic Have the Top AI Model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard by End of 2026?
Happens
70%
price $0.70
Does not happen
30%
price $0.30
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$82.4kResolution: 31 December 2026