0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Happens
85%
price $0.85
Does not happen
15%
price $0.15
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$15.05mResolution: 3 November 2026
Events
- 0 pp
Will the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the 2026 US midterms?
Happens
47%
price $0.47
Does not happen
53%
price $0.53
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$9.72mResolution: 3 November 2026 - 0 pp
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$8.90mResolution: 4 October 2026 - 0 pp
Will United Russia gain the most seats of any party in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.69mResolution: 30 September 2026 Will Donald Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$4.41mResolution: 10 October 2026Will California pass a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the November 2026 election?
Happens
28%
price $0.28
Does not happen
72%
price $0.72
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$3.68mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.75mResolution: 31 July 2026 - 0 pp
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.46mActual outcome: No Will the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.37mResolution: 3 November 2026Will Donald Trump leave office as US President before 31 August 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.04mResolution: 31 August 2026- 0 pp
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.95mActual outcome: No - 0 pp
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Happens
32%
price $0.32
Does not happen
68%
price $0.68
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.93mResolution: 30 April 2027 Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California governor election?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.84mResolution: 3 November 2026Will Kamala Harris win the 2026 California Governor election?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.57mResolution: 3 November 2026- 0 pp
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 2026 special U.S. Senate election?
Happens
69%
price $0.69
Does not happen
31%
price $0.31
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.53mResolution: 11 August 2026 Will Byron Donalds Win the 2026 Republican Primary for Florida Governor?
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.50mActual outcome: Yes- 0 pp
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Happens
65%
price $0.65
Does not happen
35%
price $0.35
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$833.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 - 0 pp
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court by 31 December 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$816.5kResolution: 1 January 2027 Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race?
Happens
71%
price $0.71
Does not happen
29%
price $0.29
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$728.1kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Count Binface finish second in the Clacton by-election?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$581.2kResolution: 13 August 2026Will Friedrich Merz stop being Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026?
Happens
17%
price $0.17
Does not happen
83%
price $0.83
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$547.4kResolution: 31 December 2026Will the Republican candidate win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
Happens
49%
price $0.49
Does not happen
51%
price $0.51
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$454.6kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Pete Hegseth leave the role of US Secretary of Defense by 31 December 2026?
Happens
23%
price $0.23
Does not happen
77%
price $0.77
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$345.3kResolution: 31 December 2026Will the 2026 US midterm elections take place as scheduled on 3 November 2026?
Happens
96%
price $0.96
Does not happen
4%
price $0.04
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$332.0kResolution: 31 December 2026Will the Democratic Party win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate race?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$320.2kResolution: 3 November 2026Will a Democrat win the 2026 Wisconsin governor race?
Happens
81%
price $0.81
Does not happen
19%
price $0.19
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$248.7kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$233.9kResolution: 3 November 2026Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Happens
50%
price $0.50
Does not happen
50%
price $0.50
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$143.2kResolution: 3 November 2026Will the Parti Quรฉbรฉcois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec election?
Happens
72%
price $0.72
Does not happen
28%
price $0.28
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$92.9kResolution: 5 October 2026Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for US President before the end of 2026?
Happens
13%
price $0.13
Does not happen
87%
price $0.87
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$77.5kResolution: 31 December 2026