Politics
Will Donald Trump be out as US President by 31 July 2026?
chance the market gives this event — not your chance of being right
- Yes — The event happens
- 0%
- No — The event does not happen
- 100%
Trade this contract
In short
The market treats this as essentially settled: Trump remaining president through 31 July 2026 is priced as near-certain. The window to settlement is under 24 hours and no resignation, impeachment vote, or 25th Amendment proceeding is publicly underway. Only a sudden, unannounced development in the next day would change that.
How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise permanently ceases to be president before 31 July 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and at nothing if he remains president through that moment. The price at any time reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance of that is - a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would mean the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance, not this market's actual price. Settlement is based on a consensus of credible news reporting, meaning there is no single official body certifying the outcome; instead, the market looks at whether mainstream reporting clearly confirms one of the qualifying events occurred. A position in this contract can generally be sold before the settlement date at whatever price the market is offering at that moment, rather than being held to the deadline.
Yes1%
No99%
Probability
How the price has moved
The contract was first recorded on 29 July 2026 with the view that Trump remains president priced at effectively 100%, and it has stayed within that same narrow range - 100% to 100% - through all 29 recorded observations since. The move over the last 24 hours has been just 0.1 percentage points, a shift small enough to reflect routine trading rather than any change in the underlying facts. No public reporting points to a specific trigger for that small move, and none should be assumed; a flat line this close to an extreme is what a market looks like when it considers a question all but decided rather than genuinely contested.
Context
This contract asks whether Donald Trump, inaugurated in January 2025, ceases to be President of the United States - by resignation, removal, or any other permanent exit - before 31 July 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution date sits just one day after this page was written, making the question, in practice, a snapshot of the current moment rather than a forecast over months. As of 30 July 2026, Trump is in office, no impeachment inquiry is reported to be moving through Congress, and no 25th Amendment process has been invoked. The only precedent for a sitting US president leaving office outside death or an election defeat is Richard Nixon's resignation in 1974, which remains, to date, a singular event in US history. The rules for this contract are specific: an announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline settles it Yes immediately, even if the actual departure happens later. A temporary Section 4 25th Amendment invocation that is not sustained by two-thirds of both chambers of Congress does not count, and impeachment without a Senate conviction does not count either. That narrows Yes down to a small set of concrete, publicly verifiable events, all of which are absent right now.
Analysis
The consensus price across venues sits at the extreme low end for this contract, meaning the market treats Trump leaving office by 31 July 2026 as essentially not going to happen. That reading has been consistent since the market was first listed on 29 July 2026: the complementary view - that Trump remains president through the deadline - has priced at effectively 100% for the full run of 29 recorded observations, with the range never moving off that level. A change of just 0.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours is well within the noise a single-venue market produces from routine order flow; it is not evidence of a shift in view, since no public reporting points to any new development in the underlying situation. Total volume of roughly $2.73 million has traded, all of it on Polymarket, which is currently the only venue quoting this contract - so there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement, only one market's steady pricing. What makes this contract unusual is the shortness of its window. Most political prediction markets price in uncertainty over months of legislative process, court rulings, or elections. Here, the settlement date is essentially tomorrow, and the rules require something concrete and already public: a resignation announcement, a completed removal, or a 25th Amendment invocation sustained by two-thirds of both the House and Senate - a bar that has never been reached in US history. With none of those events reported as underway, the market's near-total certainty reflects the absence of any visible mechanism for Yes to occur in the time remaining, not a judgment about Trump's broader political standing.
What moves the probability
Time remaining
Settlement falls at 11:59 PM ET on 31 July 2026, roughly a day after this market was priced. That leaves essentially no runway for a resignation, impeachment conviction, or a sustained 25th Amendment process to complete, which weighs heavily toward No.
No visible removal process
No public impeachment inquiry or 25th Amendment invocation is reported as active in Congress as of 30 July 2026. Since Yes requires one of those processes to conclude, or a resignation to be announced, the absence of any reported process pushes the price toward zero.
High bar for a sustained 25th Amendment invocation
The rules only count a Section 4 invocation if it is upheld by two-thirds of both the House and Senate. That threshold has never been met in US history, making this the least likely of the qualifying paths and a strong reason the market discounts it almost entirely.
Immediate-announcement rule cuts both ways
An announced resignation counts as Yes right away, even if the effective departure comes later, which technically lowers the bar for a sudden Yes. But because no such announcement has been reported, this rule currently has no effect on the price, and the market prices it as if the rule were largely theoretical.
The case for
- Donald Trump publicly announces his resignation before 31 July 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would settle the contract Yes immediately regardless of when the resignation takes effect.
- The House impeaches Trump and the Senate convicts and removes him before the deadline, a two-step process that has never been completed against a sitting US president.
- A Section 4 25th Amendment invocation is made and then sustained by a two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate within the remaining window.
- Any one of these events becoming public and confirmed by credible news reporting before the settlement moment is enough, even without the process being fully finished in a legal sense.
The case against
- No impeachment inquiry, Senate trial, or 25th Amendment invocation is reported as active in Congress as of 30 July 2026.
- The settlement deadline is under 24 hours away, leaving no realistic time for any of the qualifying multi-step processes to be completed from a standing start.
- A temporary or non-sustained 25th Amendment invocation, or an impeachment that does not end in conviction, explicitly does not count as Yes under the rules.
- The market's price has stayed pinned at the extreme low end since it was first listed on 29 July 2026, with only a 0.1 percentage point move in the last day, indicating no new information has emerged to challenge that view.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
Venues (1)
- PolymarketRecommendedYes0%0.00
- Volume (24h)
- US$146.5k
- Fee
- 4%
Resolution rules
This resolves Yes if Donald Trump resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise permanently ceases to be President of the United States for any period before 31 July 2026, 11:59 PM ET, based on a consensus of credible news reporting. An announced resignation or removal before that time settles it Yes immediately, even if the effective departure date is later. A temporary Section 4 25th Amendment invocation not sustained by two-thirds of both the House and Senate does not qualify, nor does impeachment without removal. A sustained Section 4 invocation upheld by two-thirds of both chambers does qualify. Otherwise, it resolves No.
Calculation methodology →Local context
The sitting US president's tenure is one of the most closely watched facts in global politics and markets, since it touches everything from the direction of US fiscal and foreign policy to the composition of the Federal Reserve's leadership over time. For readers outside the US, this market is less a prediction of a surprise than a real-time confirmation that the presidency remains stable through a specific date, which matters for anyone tracking US policy continuity on trade, sanctions, or interest rates. There is no data on the geographic distribution of traders in this contract, so no claim is made about who specifically is active in it.
What to watch
With settlement at 11:59 PM ET on 31 July 2026, the only things that could move this price in the time remaining are a sudden, publicly reported resignation announcement, a Congressional vote on impeachment or removal, or a 25th Amendment invocation and a subsequent two-thirds vote in both chambers - all of which would need to happen within roughly a day. Absent any of those, there is no scheduled hearing, vote, or release between now and the deadline that is expected to affect this contract.
Common questions
- What exactly settles this contract, and when?
- It settles based on a consensus of credible news reporting on whether Donald Trump resigned, was removed, or otherwise permanently ceased to be president before 31 July 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no such event is reported by that moment, it resolves No.
- What does the current price actually mean?
- The price is the market's real-time estimate of the probability of Yes, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. A price near the low end means traders collectively see the event as very unlikely to happen before the deadline, not that it is impossible.
- Does a temporary removal under the 25th Amendment count as Yes?
- No. The rules specifically exclude a Section 4 invocation unless it is sustained by a two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate. A temporary invocation, or one that lapses, resolves No.
- What if Trump announces he will resign but doesn't leave immediately?
- The rules state that an announcement of resignation before the deadline settles the contract Yes immediately, regardless of the actual effective date of departure.
- Has impeachment alone ever removed a sitting US president?
- No sitting US president has ever been removed via impeachment and Senate conviction; the only instance of an early departure outside election or death was Richard Nixon's resignation in 1974, before an impeachment vote was completed.
- Why is only one venue, Polymarket, listed for this contract?
- As of the data available, Polymarket is the only venue actively quoting and trading this specific contract, which is why there is no cross-venue price spread to compare.
Related events
0%
Yes / No