0 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
94%
price $0.94
Does not happen
6%
price $0.06
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.49mResolution: 1 March 2027
Tech
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$7.96mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market cap exceed ¥400 billion in 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$6.23mResolution: 1 January 2027- 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
42%
price $0.42
Does not happen
58%
price $0.58
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$2.92mResolution: 31 December 2026 Will the AI industry experience a bubble burst by the end of 2026?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.44mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
10%
price $0.10
Does not happen
90%
price $0.90
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$2.41mResolution: 1 January 2027Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the LMArena leaderboard at the end of September 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.03mResolution: 30 September 2026Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Happens
5%
price $0.05
Does not happen
95%
price $0.95
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$993.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI complete its IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
95%
price $0.95
Does not happen
5%
price $0.05
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$812.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$710.7kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$676.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic complete an IPO before 2027?
Happens
68%
price $0.68
Does not happen
32%
price $0.32
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$647.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Happens
2%
price $0.02
Does not happen
98%
price $0.98
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$632.5kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI complete an IPO before 2027?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$595.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the LMArena leaderboard at the end of October 2026?
Happens
27%
price $0.27
Does not happen
73%
price $0.73
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$523.6kResolution: 31 October 2026Will Unitree Robotics complete an IPO by 31 December 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$513.0kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Databricks Complete an IPO Before 2027?
Happens
4%
price $0.04
Does not happen
96%
price $0.96
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$494.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Zoom Video Communications Be Acquired Before 2027?
Happens
6%
price $0.06
Does not happen
94%
price $0.94
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$431.4kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Unitree Robotics' IPO market capitalization exceed ¥180 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$325.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Happens
14%
price $0.14
Does not happen
86%
price $0.86
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$316.2kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
Happens
53%
price $0.53
Does not happen
47%
price $0.47
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$271.8kResolution: 1 December 2026- 0 pp
Will Anthropic Have the Best Coding AI Model at the End of 2026?
Happens
73%
price $0.73
Does not happen
27%
price $0.27
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$270.4kResolution: 31 December 2026 Will Unitree Robotics' IPO close with a market capitalization above ¥250 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$268.4kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Happens
43%
price $0.43
Does not happen
57%
price $0.57
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$260.7kResolution: 31 December 2026Will Apple release the iPhone 18 in 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$252.1kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Alibaba Have the Top-Ranked Chinese AI Model on LMArena at the End of September 2026?
Happens
1%
price $0.01
Does not happen
99%
price $0.99
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$232.9kResolution: 30 September 2026Will Unitree Robotics' IPO closing market capitalization exceed ¥100 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$192.6kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Apple be the world's second-largest company by market cap on 31 August 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$189.6kResolution: 31 August 2026Will Anthropic complete an IPO by 15 December 2026?
Happens
63%
price $0.63
Does not happen
37%
price $0.37
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$167.7kResolution: 16 December 2026Will Unitree Robotics' IPO close with a market capitalization above ¥60 billion?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
Predict.funVolume: US$154.9kResolution: 1 January 2027Will Oura's IPO value the company at $20 billion or more on day one?
Happens
3%
price $0.03
Does not happen
97%
price $0.97
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$64.8kResolution: 1 January 2027Will an AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Happens
12%
price $0.12
Does not happen
88%
price $0.88
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$45.2kResolution: 1 January 2027