+2 pp
Will US tech layoffs be higher in 2026 than in 2025?
Happens
90%
price $0.90
Does not happen
10%
price $0.10
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$31.44mResolution: 1 March 2027
Tech
- 0 pp
Will Claude be the top-ranked AI model on LM Arena at the end of 2026?
Happens
62%
price $0.62
Does not happen
38%
price $0.38
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
KalshiVolume: US$1.80mResolution: 31 December 2026 - Hot+0.1 pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026?
Happens
99%
price $0.99
Does not happen
1%
price $0.01
Price is a market estimate of probability, not a yield.
PolymarketVolume: US$1.20mResolution: 31 July 2026